Waning and Waxing (9)
Volume 4: Peace and Development · Chapter 49
The public lecture at Tokyo Imperial University of the Japanese Empire started at 9:00 AM and ended at 11:00 AM. Ishiwara Kanji also finished his private talk with Mitsui Yasuki and other members of the Japanese business community at this time and stood up to take his leave.
The group of businessmen all stood up to see him off. As the host, Mitsui Yasuki personally escorted Ishiwara to the door before asking in a low voice, "Your Excellency, do you think He-kun will return the confiscated properties after Sino-Japanese relations return to friendship?"
Ishiwara knew that the properties Mitsui referred to were the Mitsui Conglomerate's investments in the Northeast. Once the war started, the Northeast Government and the Japanese Government not only began to arrest each other's personnel but also confiscated the enemy's property within their own regimes. It was just that the number of Chinese in Japan was small, and they were there to make a living, having absolutely no wealth. Arresting a group of poor Chinese ghosts made the Japanese government very uncomfortable.
Taking the South Manchuria Railway Company as an example, Mantetsu was established in 1906 with a capital of 200 million yen, increased to 400 million yen by the end of 1920, with a paid-in capital of 309,156,000 yen. Among the enterprises it invested in, railways accounted for about 50%, shipping about 10%, mining 30%, and public utilities about 5% (excluding administration, hotels, culture, and education, etc.).
Railway revenue was the largest. The profit of the railway was about 10 million yen per year before the Great War, increasing to 48.55 million yen in 1920. Mantetsu turned over 2.5 million yen in dividends to the Japanese government annually, increasing to 3.5 million yen after 1918, mainly from the railway.
The investment of 'Mantetsu' only accounted for about 20% of all Japanese investments in the Northeast. During the war, the total value of Japanese investments confiscated by the Northeast Government was about 1 billion yen. He Rui had already made a fortune when he took back the Chinese Eastern Railway. Through the war with Japan, just by confiscation, he had made a huge profit.
If He Rui made money, someone definitely lost. Mitsui Yasuki's Mitsui Conglomerate had investments in the Northeast, which were also mercilessly confiscated after the war started. This investment did not have a huge impact on the Mitsui family, but it still weighed on Mitsui Yasuki's mind.
Faced with such a question, Ishiwara naturally couldn't make any guarantees, and he didn't need to make any guarantees. Since Mitsui Yasuki asked, Ishiwara still needed to answer, so Ishiwara replied, "Mitsui-kun, as long as the current Japanese government can recognize the He-kun regime, you can go to He-kun's government to appeal. Don't you believe that He-kun is a person who respects the legal system?"
Mitsui Yasuki only felt that what Ishiwara said was correct, but he didn't dare to believe it entirely. Having known He Rui for nine years, Mitsui always felt that He Rui understood economics very well, knowing the purpose of businessmen's investments and what businessmen worried about. He Rui embezzling assets confiscated during wartime would only make businessmen afraid or unwilling to invest in China.
But people always change. Let alone a foreign regime like China, even the attitude of the Japanese local regime towards businessmen would undergo various adjustments. Mitsui Yasuki truly dared not bet all hopes of recovering the seized property on He Rui.
Even so, Mitsui Yasuki still bowed in thanks, "Thank you for the hint, Ishiwara-kun."
Leaving Mitsui Yasuki's place, Ishiwara returned to the New Technology Training Bureau and took out a report to read. This was the Ministry of Finance's second-quarter economic statistics report for Japan. Since the Great Kanto Earthquake in September 1923, the Japanese economy had declined rapidly. The data displayed in this statistical report would make anyone who understood economics tremble with fear.
The Great Kanto Earthquake directly affected the Kanto region, and other parts of Japan did not suffer direct impact. However, with the industrial center of the Kanto Plain suffering such a blow, the economies of various parts of Japan revolved around the Kanto region, or at least had a lot of economic dealings with it. So the crisis expanded rapidly.
According to the data report, Japan's total industrial output value for the entire year of 1924 would likely drop from 7.7 billion to around 5.5 billion. Even though the Japanese government injected 400 million yen of special disaster relief notes into the disaster area to inject liquidity, Japanese domestic production enterprises had no preparation to expand investment because they had lost confidence. Most enterprises striving to restore production aimed only at the Japanese domestic market.
The Japanese domestic market was similar to any normal market, with the most spending power residing in the cities. The rural economy was already crumbling under various shocks, and the current Japanese consumer market was not large. This part of domestic demand was completely insufficient to start Japan's economic recovery.
After reading these, Ishiwara sighed slightly. He didn't want the Japanese people to suffer at all, but their strength was still weak. In such a situation, there was no other way. Now the only way to break the deadlock was for He Rui's economic policy in China to succeed. As long as He Rui could go from one victory to another, Japan's revolutionary forces would only become stronger and stronger.
But Ishiwara didn't have special confidence. Many people thought the upper echelon possessed immense power, but Ishiwara only discovered after becoming a true dignitary that things were not that simple. The more one was a dignitary, the more one had to provide livelihood for more people. He Rui himself couldn't conjure up money; even if his economic policy succeeded, it couldn't succeed to a supernatural extent.
Ishiwara guessed right. He Rui was preparing for the autumn harvest that would begin in less than two months. This autumn harvest meant a big exam. According to the latest statistical data, except for Tibet and the Western Regions, the new government had established county governments in other regions.
Land reform was completed in 60% of the areas. Except for the Northeast and Inner/Outer Mongolia, land reform was completed before spring plowing in the northern and Central Plains regions of Zhili (Henan), Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Anhui, and Jiangsu.
In more southern regions, due to two harvests a year, land reform was also completed before the second crop.
The remaining 40% of the territory was the Northwest, Southwest, and other regions. The state's management in those areas was inherently insufficient, and at this time, many troops were conducting bandit suppression locally.
At this time, He Rui was holding a Military Commission meeting, which had lasted longer than planned. Fortunately, everyone could use the lunch time for the meeting. Ordinary meals were placed in front of the Military Commission members, and everyone talked while eating.
General Zheng Silang had returned from the Northwest first. While tearing the steamed bun into pieces and soaking them in the soup of pork stir-fried with lettuce, he said, "Chairman, I don't even want to call them bandits over there; I think calling it a rebellion is more appropriate. Even if the Soviet Union says now that they don't support the rebels, I still don't quite believe it."
He Rui swallowed a mouthful of noodles. "Precisely because of this, we shouldn't act indiscriminately. We must act against the common enemy; this is the most effective means to unite the people. Land reform must be firmly implemented over there. You and the comrades of the Northwest Bureau must be extra diligent in propaganda."
Seeing that his complaint didn't move He Rui, Zheng Silang simply spoke directly, "Chairman, the comrades now least want to go to the Northwest. You have to think of a way for me."
It was mealtime, so He Rui could also think for a while while eating noodles. No one wanted to go to that place in the Northwest because it was truly too arduous.
In He Rui's space-time, the biggest reason for the comprehensive economic development of the entire Northwest was the development of new energy and breakthroughs in seawater desalination technology. The government engaged in photovoltaic agriculture all along the desert and wasteland, turning large tracts of desert and wasteland into grasslands.
Due to the abundant solar energy in the Northwest, the new energy in the Northwest was used to desalinate seawater and transport fresh water to the Northwest step by step. The solar panels of photovoltaic power plants shielded the desert and wasteland from strong winds and prevented direct sun exposure. Sufficient fresh water supply enabled planting under the photovoltaic power stations, constituting a positive return.
For the current Republic government to reach this technological level, optimistically, it would take more than 25 years. That would be five Five-Year Plans. Before that, only means consistent with the current technological level could be adopted.
After thinking for a while, He Rui could only agree, "Starting next year, personnel investment in the Northwest Bureau will be strengthened."
Zheng Silang finally got the promise of increased personnel, especially capable personnel, so he felt relieved and began to bury his head in eating. However, Chief of General Staff Cheng Ruofan couldn't help but say, "Chairman, are there that many people now?"
"Don't worry so much. Britain is not as ignorant of the times as you think. They will indeed fight us a few times in Burma and the northeastern region of India. Adding the colonial army, the white troop strength might reach 200,000. But this is Britain's limit. What we want is a Sino-British Joint Communiqué, not a full-scale war with Britain now. This requires precise communication through diplomatic channels."
Cheng Ruofan understood He Rui's plan very well, but Cheng Ruofan didn't understand the British. Hearing He Rui say this, he was still quite worried. "Chairman, if I were the British Viceroy of India, I would never compromise."
He Rui was amused. "So, you can't be the British Viceroy of India. I still have that question: what is the duty of the Viceroy of India?"
Cheng Ruofan answered, "Maintain British rule in India." After speaking, he added, "But defeating our troops in India is also a way to maintain British rule in India for a long time."
"Ruofan, you are right! However, in the eyes of British rulers, to maintain their rule in India, they must never establish a strong central government locally in India. Leaving aside that the British simply can't do it, even if Britain had the ability to do so, the second day after such an Indian colonial central government was established, India would be independent. In order to rule India to the greatest extent, Britain has to set up colonial rule in such a region as India, but India itself must be divided. And it must be divided as finely as possible. Only in this way can Britain complete its rule over India with a very small number of people. We must never use Chinese thinking to consider the Indian region."
Defense Minister Xu Chengfeng felt that Cheng Ruofan was drilling into a dead end again and also interjected, "Chairman, I recently read European history. Could it be that the biggest pillar for France to contend with Britain for so many years is their tradition of centralization?"
"You are right. France's tradition of centralization was built by Cardinal Richelieu 300 years ago. Although compared with China's centralization, France's centralized system is far from mature. But having centralization is better than not having centralization. The biggest advantage of centralization lies in that someone must come out to be responsible to the end. Under the British system, the biggest responsibility is to bow and step down. Only those who harm the interests of the upper echelon will be held legally responsible. For example, the British Viceroy of India, his job is to maintain the benefits India provides to Britain, not to defend India."
Speaking of this, He Rui turned to Cheng Ruofan. "Ruofan, in the Manchu Qing era, the world belonged to the Manchu Qing dog emperor, so when Japan invaded, many people felt: what does this have to do with us? And the Manchu Qing would never distribute the interests of the ruling class to those willing to step forward for the country. For example, Ruofan, if you stepped forward for the country during the First Sino-Japanese War, once you gained status, wouldn't the next thing you do be to overthrow the Manchu Qing?"
Cheng Ruofan hadn't considered it this way. After a moment of silence, his brows furrowed even tighter. "Chairman, if you say so, can I understand it this way: the Viceroy of India is even more traitorous than the Manchu Qing?"
Xu Chengfeng laughed, "India was never part of Britain. The Manchu Qing could be called traitorous, but the British Viceroy went to plunder India in the first place; how can he be called traitorous?"
He Rui felt that Xu Chengfeng's words also missed the point, so he continued, "The job of the Viceroy of India is to maintain British interests in India. This interest is no longer plundering precious metals from India; British interests are plundering Indian labor through finance and other means... Oh... right, Ruofan, would you think the Viceroy of India is someone who can't figure this out?"
Cheng Ruofan thought for a moment and shook his head.
He Rui continued to reinforce the basic concept, "The Viceroy of India is very clear about his job. Anyone who can't figure it out will be removed and replaced by someone who can. Therefore, what the Viceroy of India pursues is not a decisive battle with us, but defending British interests in India. Full-scale war with us is the authority of Britain, not the authority of the Viceroy of India. If the British government goes to full-scale war with us, there is a risk for the British government, an extremely huge risk. Can they win? Britain is now the world hegemon, so it is under tremendous pressure. Do the various powers below expect Britain to stay in the hegemon position for thousands of generations? Definitely not. They hope that the Versailles system maintained by Britain now can yield benefits to various powers. To some extent, Britain's failure and weakening, having to yield benefits to the powers to win the war, is what the powers hope to see. Then, must Britain declare war on us? For Britain, is it cheaper to sign a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations with China, or is it cheaper to yield benefits to the powers?"
Cheng Ruofan started thinking again. Just then, He Rui's secretary came in and said, "Chairman, the next meeting is in half an hour."
He Rui ate the last two mouthfuls of noodles in the bowl and poured plain boiled water into the bowl. After drinking half of it, Cheng Ruofan's brow smoothed out. "Chairman, even if we establish diplomatic relations with Britain, Britain won't actually relax the trade blockade against us, right?"
He Rui wanted to answer immediately, but ended up choking on the water and coughing repeatedly. Zheng Silang patted He Rui's back twice with precise technique, exactly when He Rui was coughing out. Under the combined action of the two forces, the water entering the trachea was expelled, and He Rui finally stopped coughing.
Panting a few times, He Rui praised loudly, "Thinking like this basically conforms to reality. Demanding Britain to fully open trade is something even the United States can't make Britain do; how could we possibly do it?"
After praising, He Rui said to the comrades, "Comrades, do you think our previous trade with Britain was relatively large?"
Those present were all military men. Xu Chengfeng answered readily, "I have this feeling, but now I feel it must be wrong. Please give the answer directly, Chairman."
"The trade between the British homeland and us was mainly in specialty products. Porcelain, pig bristles, tung oil, raw silk. Has everyone noticed that except for porcelain, they are all primary raw materials, not industrial manufactured goods. Germany is close to Britain, so it had the opportunity to sell industrial manufactured goods to Britain. Even so, the volume of British purchases was very average. Britain is even less likely to allow us to sell industrial manufactured goods to the British homeland and British colonies. Therefore, it is possible for Britain to sign a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations with us. The important thing is that we must maintain accuracy in diplomacy with Britain. We must make Britain understand that once we issue a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations with Britain, we will join the Versailles system, not overthrow the Versailles system. This is the work in the diplomatic field."
Cheng Ruofan immediately asked, "Chairman, the Versailles system is a system protecting British and French colonial rule. I feel you won't truly maintain the Versailles system."
Hearing such a question, Xu Chengfeng, Hu Xiushan, Zheng Silang, and others couldn't help but show expressions of 'here we go again, here we go again.' From the Baoding Military Academy, Cheng Ruofan was considered very smart but also too idealistic. That was why his rating wasn't high.
For Xu Chengfeng and others, if He Rui ordered the liberation of colonies all over the world, they would do their best to complete the task. But if He Rui wanted to conquer the world, they would definitely follow closely without hesitation.
Just now, Cheng Ruofan couldn't understand the real world because of sympathy for the colonial people, and He Rui had managed to make Cheng Ruofan understand the logic of the real world with great difficulty. Seeing Cheng Ruofan drilling into a dead end again, the few who had finished eating stood up to take their leave.
He Rui didn't mind. After everyone left, he continued to say to Cheng Ruofan, "Ruofan, take it step by step. Our goal at this stage is to first get rid of the status quo of a semi-colony, and at the same time become a country accepted by the Great Powers. As long as we achieve this, for the people in the vast colonized areas, this is an effective model. Those young people who want to liberate their hometowns will come to China to seek the path of liberation. The colonial system must be destroyed, but our strength is insufficient to destroy them. As I said before, we must mobilize the colonized people to rise up and resist. Their awakening and resistance will greatly consume the power of the colonial countries from within. And China is the country that helps these people, the great rear area for the liberation cause of the vast colonies around the world. How about it, do you have confidence now?"
Cheng Ruofan was 30 years old this year. Hearing He Rui clearly state the future direction, a smile couldn't help but appear on his handsome and determined young face. "Chairman, I have no more problems. My only view is not to be too hasty."
Being told by Cheng Ruofan not to be hasty, He Rui felt this guy was really too funny. But He Rui knew very well that Cheng Ruofan's words were actually a guarantee to He Rui that Cheng Ruofan would not act recklessly because of inner expectations.
He Rui stood up and replied, "Ruofan, let's complete the cause of liberating the oppressed people together without haste or impatience."
After speaking, He Rui walked out. The afternoon meeting would start in less than 20 minutes, and He Rui had to prepare quickly.