文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Waning and Waxing (8)

Volume 4: Peace and Development · Chapter 48

July 27, 1924, was a Sunday. Yesterday, Ishiwara Kanji met with Kita Ikki, and in the morning, they took a car to Mitsui Yasuki's home. As the car passed the gate of Tokyo Imperial University, they saw that outside the gate on this holiday, a large number of relatively decently dressed people were lining up in queues waiting to enter. Among them were some who looked like reporters.

Because the number of people was truly large, not only were the school guards working, but several police officers were also participating in maintaining order outside the school gate. Ishiwara Kanji couldn't help but smile; today was the day of Professor Taira Toyomori, Vice President of Tokyo University and Dean of the Law School, giving a public lecture. So many people came to listen to the lecture. Even though the course was held in the Grand Auditorium of Tokyo University, it still couldn't satisfy the number of people coming to listen. To attend the lecture, one had to apply in advance; only those who received an 'invitation letter' were allowed to enter Tokyo University.

The crowd holding invitation letters waiting for inspection had already formed a long line. Ishiwara saw Kita Ikki among them, which surprised Ishiwara a little. But on second thought, it wasn't too strange; Kita Ikki was also a member of the intellectual circle and a rather famous one. Ishiwara still looked forward to Kita Ikki learning true knowledge from Professor Taira Toyomori's class.

The car stopped outside Mitsui Yasuki's house. Mitsui Yasuki personally came out to welcome them, saying happily, "I have been waiting for Your Excellency Ishiwara for a long time."

As the two walked inside, Ishiwara laughed, "I just passed by the gate of Todai. Today is Professor Taira's public lecture."

Mitsui Yasuki nodded. "I attend every public lecture of Professor Taira. However, Professor Taira only has ten public lectures left per year. On weekdays, I can only look forward to Professor Taira's latest books and articles in newspapers."

When the two entered the living room, several well-dressed people were already waiting inside. Mitsui Yasuki introduced them one by one: Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Yasuda—all famous figures in the Japanese business world today. There were also two young juniors, one of whom was named Matsushita Konosuke, about thirty years old. He looked delicate and elegant, making a good impression.

Facing Ishiwara, these people did not appear constrained and came forward to greet him very enthusiastically. Mitsui knew that Ishiwara was very westernized, so he invited him to the Western-style living room. Everyone took their seats on the sofas, and Mitsui introduced to everyone, "Your Excellency Ishiwara has always been on good terms with He-kun. Professor Taira Toyomori also recommended to me that in Japan, among those who truly understand 'He Studies,' Your Excellency Ishiwara should be the first. Since Your Excellency Ishiwara is here this time, gentlemen, please speak freely."

Ishiwara didn't think there was anything wrong with this statement. He Rui, Taira Toyomori, and Ishiwara Kanji—the three people shared a common characteristic: they were all elite dignitaries with very high status in their respective countries. Any civilized country would have a view that the higher the status, the smarter and more capable the person. If the status was high to a certain extent, it might even be considered to have a subtle relationship with supernatural powers. This was especially true in Japan.

At this time, Professor Taira Toyomori had already taken the podium in the Grand Auditorium of Todai. Among the 150 listeners below the stage, 50 were outstanding young teachers and students of Todai, 30 were business owners, 40 were officials within the Japanese government, and the remaining 30 were upper-class figures, reporters, and scholars outside Todai.

Kita Ikki was a scholar outside Todai. He saw Professor Taira Toyomori dressed very simply, in a suit with no ornaments, with quite obvious silver threads in his black hair, and his black-rimmed glasses were also of a common style. Compared with his status, such plain attire made Kita Ikki admire him very much.

Professor Taira Toyomori's status in the academic world was Vice President of Todai and Dean of the Law School of Todai. As He Rui's long-term academic partner, he founded two disciplines in Japan, 'Geopolitics' and 'Political Economy,' and was a renowned scholar.

Because of Professor Taira's academic strength, he had been a special advisor to the Ministry of Finance for many years, and in the last three years, he was also hired as a special lecturer for the Emperor. Previously, when Takahashi Korekiyo formed a cabinet, he had invited Professor Taira Toyomori to serve as the Finance Minister, but Professor Taira Toyomori declined.

Able to listen to Professor Taira Toyomori's lectures in person, Kita Ikki felt lucky and also delighted to be recognized by such mainstream social elites as qualified to attend the lecture.

Professor Taira Toyomori's lecture in this term was divided into three sessions, titled "Capital and Credit—The Impact of Confidence on Investment in Modern Industrial Society." Today was the last session.

The first two sessions of the course used Japan's industrial social investment during the European War and after the European War as case studies. In today's class, Professor Taira Toyomori started directly with the investment after the Great Kanto Earthquake in Japan.

The Great Kanto Earthquake dealt a heavy blow to Japan's current economic center, the Kanto Plain, with wealth losses between 5 and 5.5 billion yen. And Japan's national income in 1922 was only 15.5 billion yen.

As an earthquake-prone country, Japan had experienced earthquakes of no less scale in history. In historical records, Mount Fuji had erupted several times, covering the Kanto Plain under 10 centimeters of volcanic ash. Such natural disasters were not enough to destroy Japan; the Japanese people could rebuild their homes from such disasters.

In Professor Taira Toyomori's view, as an industrialized Japan, the impact caused by the Great Kanto Earthquake was divided into three stages.

The first stage was the direct loss suffered by the industrial center of the Kanto Plain. The second stage was the economic disorder caused by the losses suffered by industrial enterprises, especially the financial stagnation caused by the chaos and interruption of normal capital flows in the financial industry.

Both stages were recoverable. With Japan's rich experience with earthquakes, there would be a long period of geological stability in this region after the Great Kanto Earthquake, so there was no need to worry about another major earthquake occurring. There were good conditions for rebuilding homes and restoring the economy. Moreover, the people in the disaster area were rebuilding their homes. With the diligence and endurance of the Japanese people, the progress of reconstruction was quite considerable.

However, Japan's economy did not recover because of such reconstruction; instead, a situation of economic stagnation and lack of investment formed. regarding this, Professor Taira Toyomori's explanation was very clear: "Japan has entered the industrial age. The economic activities of an industrialized society revolve around selling products. The purposes of rebuilding homes are very diverse. Due to the unprecedented low confidence of current industry and commerce in product sales, the investment that reconstruction can drive is entirely aimed at the simplest living, not for reproduction. This is reflected in the fact that a large number of factories are not eager to resume production and work. Anyone with money to consume holds onto their currency and waits, hoping to keep the money to counter a worse future. Such a state of confidence directly leads to economic decline..."

Everyone, including Kita Ikki, listened attentively and took notes without missing a word. Kita Ikki tried hard to follow Professor Taira Toyomori's line of thought and gained a clear understanding of the rapidly deteriorating situation of the Japanese economy.

Even suffering the damage of the Great Kanto Earthquake, the wealth held by the Japanese nation now far exceeded that of 20 years ago. The core reason leading to the current economic predicament was the deterioration of Japan's economic environment after the Great Kanto Earthquake, the weakness of production, and the disappearance of the market. What the Japanese people lost was not the confidence to survive, but the confidence in future development.

At this time, at Mitsui Yasuki's residence, Ishiwara Kanji, as another representative figure of 'He Studies,' knew after just a little communication with the Japanese industrialists and businessmen in front of him that they had obtained Professor Taira Toyomori's report from the Ministry of Finance through various channels.

This report was exactly the content of Professor Taira Toyomori's public lecture at this time. For people like Mitsui Yasuki and Matsushita Konosuke, they fully understood Japan's current predicament and fully agreed with Professor Taira Toyomori's views.

Just seeing the problem was useless; the key was how to solve it. In the current situation, Japan simply couldn't find an effective way to solve the problem.

Ishiwara asked frankly, "Gentlemen, you have all read He-kun's *Elementary Understanding of Geopolitics* and *The Fate of Japan*. I wonder if you have read the article *Direction of China's New Democratic Revolution* published by He-kun in the newspaper in March this year?"

These people just nodded slightly but didn't say it directly. The so-called 'He Studies' referred to the overall doctrine of a complete set of views proposed by He Rui, including history, geography, politics, economics, and military affairs. Even though He Rui's victory was a heavy blow to Japan, the Japanese upper echelon's recognition of He Rui's doctrine was rising rapidly along with He Rui's success.

Japan had indeed made great progress and gained huge benefits by imitating Europe in these years. But Europe was Europe after all, and Japan had absolutely no way to replicate the success of the European powers. Now that China was reunified, it meant that the expansionist line of Britain, France, and the United States had hit a wall. The current Japan was powerless to solve the Republic government and restore the Far East order to the Manchu Qing era.

In the eyes of the Japanese business and academic communities, the success of 'He Studies' likely meant the true revival of the ancient Chinese civilization. This country regained the ability to resist Western pressure and possibly defeat it. As a member of the Chinese civilization circle, Japan also had a new choice to learn from China.

But was this choice correct? Everyone lacked confidence. After all, He Rui only defeated Japan and pacified the Soviet Union. In the eyes of the Japanese, an earth-shattering hero would appear in China every few hundred years. Such a great hero might accomplish such feats even if he only used traditional Confucian thoughts.

Although the Japanese felt resentment towards He Rui due to the defeat, they also respected He Rui very much because of his victory. But this respect was not enough to change the new cognition formed by Japan's decades of industrialization: 'The Way of Confucius and Mencius is no longer advanced civilized thought.'

Ishiwara understood this very well because he saw it the same way. He continued, "According to geopolitics, Japan's current geopolitical environment includes Soviet Russia in the north, China in the west, the United States in the Fusang Continent in the east, and the British, French, and Dutch colonial areas in the south. These are all countries Japan faces directly."

Hearing 'Eastern Fusang Continent,' the expressions of these Japanese fluctuated a bit. 'He Studies' did not simply propose a few concepts but a whole set of concepts. Originally, Japan quite liked to call itself 'Fusang,' but 'He Studies' used various ancient books to verify and emphasize that Fusang Continent was the name given to the American continent by ocean voyagers who crossed the sea during China's Northern and Southern Dynasties.

Ishiwara knew very well the reason why He Rui adopted such a name. He Rui was using Chinese geographical descriptions to counter the European and American description of the 'Great Geographical Discovery.' Long before the emerging Western European civilization, the ancient Chinese civilization had already conducted a round of investigations of world geography, far earlier than the little brothers in Western Europe.

But this was not an issue that needed to be mentioned today. Ishiwara pretended not to see the expressions of this group of businessmen. "Under the new geopolitical situation, Japan's past national policy has lost its practical significance. If Japan wants to continue promoting industrialization, it must determine the future of a new Japan. The new Japan must be led by Japanese laborers, the operators and managers of Japanese capital, and the appliers of means of production."

Hearing this, Mitsui Yasuki couldn't help but recall a meeting with the Japanese Control Faction a few days ago. In that meeting, the Japanese Control Faction proposed the 'New Japan' in their eyes: the Emperor, the nobility, the army, the intellectual circle, and industry and commerce formed this Japan and led this new Japan. The Diet was an institution for political consultation and gaming among Japan's rulers. The 'Satcho Domain Clique system' was to be completely kicked out of the ranks of rulers.

As one of Japan's *zaibatsu*, Mitsui Yasuki naturally positioned himself as an operator and manager of capital. The Mitsui Conglomerate was not formed by the Mitsui family alone but by a large number of industrial enterprises connected with Mitsui Bank as the center. These industrial enterprises were naturally the appliers of means of production.

In the New Japan viewed by the Army Control Faction, banking and industry/commerce represented by the Mitsui Conglomerate were naturally important components. Moreover, some of the participating capitalists strongly supported such a polity, hoping to establish a 'Military-Capital Alliance.' This term applied the 'Union of Court and Shogunate' from the Bakumatsu era, making Mitsui Yasuki feel very ridiculous inwardly. Analyzing with the political economy of 'He Studies,' this 'Military-Capital Alliance' and 'Union of Court and Shogunate' were almost the same thing.

Decades had passed since the overthrow of the Shogunate, yet they were 'overthrowing' back to the past. Was there anything more ridiculous than this?

Mitsui Yasuki didn't laugh then, and he didn't laugh now. He pushed his gold-rimmed glasses. "Ishiwara-kun, the so-called democracy is a process of eliminating privileges, eliminating industry barriers and cognitive barriers through the development of productive forces. I am puzzled about how to achieve efficiency and fairness in this process."

After Mitsui Yasuki finished speaking, the eyes of the other businessmen brightened a lot. Everyone looked at Ishiwara Kanji, the first person of Japanese 'He Studies' guaranteed by Professor Taira Toyomori, Vice President of Tokyo Imperial University, waiting for him to explain.

Ishiwara Kanji found it quite interesting. Mitsui Yasuki speaking like this clearly showed that he hadn't just read *Direction of China's New Democratic Revolution*, but had seriously studied and analyzed it.

Since the other party was like this, it saved a lot of unnecessary narration. Ishiwara answered easily, "The development of productive forces enabled Japan to rise, build Japan's industry, and win the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War. However, once China and Russia overthrew the old systems and embarked on the path of striving to promote the development of productive forces, Japan fell behind in national direction. Because the reason Japan could win back then was merely being ahead of these two major powers in industrial development and war preparation. But through revolution, these two major powers are now ahead of Japan in political systems."

As a war hero, when Ishiwara said this, the businessmen had no will to refute.

Ishiwara continued to explain, "Japan's current privileges originate from the ancient era before the Meiji Restoration. It was not these privileges that allowed Japan to win, but brand-new industrialization. The disappearance of privileges originating from the agricultural era will only promote Japan's future development. Industry barriers and cognitive barriers are the results of differences in education levels received by individuals and differences in cognitive structures in the industrial age. This is a brand-new problem at the entire social level."

Mitsui Yasuki confirmed that the New Japan in Ishiwara Kanji's vision was not the kind that eliminated private capital like the Soviet Union did, and felt relieved. After all, in the propaganda of Japan's current high-level officials, He Rui was an evil communist, a destroyer of Chinese tradition, and a radical who eliminated the Chinese rich.

Mitsui Yasuki had known He Rui since 1915 and naturally wouldn't be deceived by such clumsy lies. But among the current Japanese radicals, many regarded the Japanese industrial and commercial class as enemies. Mitsui Yasuki understood He Rui, but didn't understand Ishiwara Kanji.

The other businessmen also breathed a sigh of relief, especially Matsushita Konosuke, who came from a technician background, even nodded slightly unconsciously, his eyes brightening.

Ishiwara knew very well that he had to win over the various strata participating in production in Japan from the Control Faction representing elitism and the Imperial Way Faction representing populism as much as possible. So he continued to explain, "He-kun's land policy is not his goal. He-kun never thought of building the world's largest small-peasant country and maintaining this small-peasant country for thousands of generations. The land reform policy is a means, aiming to solve the problem of bankruptcy in China's rural areas and eliminate the land rentier class. Only after the land rentier economic model is eliminated can the landlord class be truly eliminated. If China still adopts the land rentier economic model, then the landlords are not eliminated, just changed. In this regard, we can continue to observe."

"As for Japan, domestic contradictions are extremely fierce. If Japan were not industrialized and the people had never experienced a better life, the Japanese people might still be able to endure. But Japan has been industrialized for decades, and the Japanese people can no longer endure it. The current Japan is a huge pressure cooker. Previously, it relied on foreign wars, seizing spheres of influence, and controlling local markets to export pressure. Japan's current geopolitical structure no longer has such space for external export. The steam vent of the pressure cooker has been blocked, and the internal pressure will only get bigger and bigger. All sectors in Japan either clearly understand this situation or feel such pressure personally. This has led to a lack of confidence in Japan. Japan cannot find its own direction. Everyone can clearly see this situation. I wonder what you think of Japan's future?"

Hearing Ishiwara throw out such a question, Mitsui Yasuki knew Ishiwara wanted to hear which side Mitsui Yasuki wanted to take. This was also the source of Mitsui Yasuki's pain in recent months. Japanese industry and commerce had a long history, but for hundreds of years, its positioning was never to be the core of the Japanese state. Under such positioning, how to take sides was a matter of life and death.

Ishiwara Kanji was indeed very excellent, but not excellent enough to make Mitsui Yasuki have to choose him.

Seeing Mitsui Yasuki silent, Ishiwara Kanji continued, "Has Mitsui-kun read books on reflecting on the war in various European countries recently?"

"I've read some," Mitsui answered somewhat dejectedly.

"At the end of 1915, the Allied Powers and the Central Powers already knew they couldn't fight anymore. But once the war started, public opinion kept pushing it. In the eyes of the people, since we have paid such a huge price, we must win. In the eyes of the German General Staff, since all military offensive means cannot defeat the enemy, the war has lost its meaning, and it can even be said that the war has failed. But in the eyes of the German people, since the enemy hasn't fought into the German homeland and killed their way to them, the war is not lost."

Speaking of this, Ishiwara, whose mouth was dry, picked up his teacup and took a sip. Mitsui and others frowned slightly; such purely military and political matters were indeed difficult for them to fully understand.

After moistening his throat, Ishiwara continued to explain, "I have contacted others. Nagata-kun, Obata-kun (Obata Toshishiro), they are not unaware that Japan needs reform. But they are still restrained by the old era and refuse to completely separate from the old era. For this purpose, they can only make illusory assumptions, believing that He-kun's new government is a traditional Chinese government operated by power tactics, and such a government rises abruptly and perishes suddenly. Mitsui-kun has known He-kun for ten years; do you think He-kun is such a person?"

Mitsui smiled bitterly. His initial acquaintance with He Rui was completely an accident. If he had gone to see his mistress that day, he wouldn't have met He Rui. However, the expectation of gaining more knowledge made Mitsui adjust his time, shortening the schedule of spending a day with his mistress to meeting at night. Such a small adjustment actually caused today's situation. Mitsui felt that fate was truly hard to describe.

Ishiwara said seriously, "If Japan continues in the direction expected by these people, they first have to try to restore the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Their purpose in restoring the Anglo-Japanese Alliance is not simply to gain a little British support, but to gain a reason to confront China. For these people, confrontation is not for winning. As long as confrontation forms, they can continue to hold power. Winning is certainly good, but losing slightly to a certain extent is even better. The Japanese people will naturally have a thought: since we have paid such a huge price, we can only win it back by continuing to fight; wouldn't we lose everything if we admit defeat now! Those people only need to sacrifice the people they pushed to the front stage, and they can change another batch of people to continue holding power. As long as the confrontation continues, their status will be very stable."

Mitsui understood this very well and couldn't help but sigh slightly. He was inclined to support Ishiwara at this moment, but he was still just a breath away.

However, Matsushita Konosuke was agitated by Ishiwara's description. He couldn't help asking with anger, "Your Excellency Ishiwara, do they really not care about Japan's suffering?"

Ishiwara sneered, "Hehe, as long as they make the Japanese people believe that the opportunity will definitely come. The Japanese people, who have long been accustomed to suffering, can be deceived by them. For people who understand like Mitsui-kun and Matsushita-kun, they will also tell you very clearly that the current policy is just for the Japanese people to suffer a bit more. After all, didn't we get through it like this decades ago? But after winning the First Sino-Japanese War, what huge benefits Japan gained! People without enough knowledge will harbor illusions. As long as they harbor illusions, they will be used."

Looking at the angry Matsushita Konosuke, Ishiwara's smile became gentle. "I appreciate a sentence from He-kun very much: Discard illusions, prepare for struggle!"