Waning and Waxing (5)
Volume 4: Peace and Development · Chapter 45
When the car arrived at Saionji Kinmochi's residence, several cars were already parked outside. Nagata Tetsuzan got out of the car, straightened his already neat military uniform, and then walked towards the main gate. The guards had received instructions long ago and knew that Saionji had invited Nagata Tetsuzan, so they had already opened the gate.
Saionji was quite westernized; the layout of his home was completely Western-style, as was the dining room. At the long European-style aristocratic dining table, Saionji sat at the head, with two sets of tableware placed next to him. One person was already sitting next to Saionji, holding a cigarette between his fingers, talking to Saionji. It was the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shidehara Kijūrō. Seeing Lieutenant General Nagata being led into the dining room, he stood up.
Nagata had thought that with several cars outside, there would be several invited guests. The servant led Nagata to the only empty seat, and only then did he realize that Saionji had only invited him and Shidehara Kijūrō to dine together.
Saionji Kinmochi was currently the only *Genrō* [Elder Statesman] in Japan. He did not stand up but just invited Nagata to take a seat. After Shidehara and Nagata sat down, Saionji ordered the servants to serve the dishes and then asked about the recent affairs of the Mobilization Bureau.
Nagata readily admitted that the Mobilization Bureau was preparing data in the face of the current changes in surrounding forces. After listening to Nagata, Saionji asked directly, "Nagata-kun, what kind of contingency plan has the Mobilization Bureau formulated for China?"
At this time, the steaming food was basically all served. *Genrō* Saionji pointed to the food, "Let's talk while eating."
Saionji's family meals were very ordinary. Nagata often invited capable young officers he fancied to dine together, and there was no difference in quality between the two. Saionji, Shidehara Kijūrō, and Nagata Tetsuzan had all stayed in Europe and America for a long time, and the three were very used to this mode of chatting while eating.
Nagata skillfully cut a piece of chicken cutlet and answered after eating it, "Your Excellency, in the current judgment, Japan is not worried about China invading the Japanese mainland and Ryukyu. All preparations are directed at China's actions in Korea and Taiwan. In the current judgment, the danger before 1925 is not great."
After speaking, Nagata put another piece of cut chicken cutlet (chunk of chicken meat) into his mouth.
Saionji looked at Foreign Minister Shidehara Kijūrō and saw that Shidehara was also burying his head in eating, but listening seriously. Seeing Saionji looking over, Shidehara swallowed the food in his mouth and asked readily, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is considering contacting China. Does Nagata-kun think China will compensate for the investment in the South Manchuria Railway like at the Washington Conference?"
Nagata didn't answer immediately. Foreign Minister Shidehara Kijūrō was Japan's plenipotentiary representative at the Washington Conference and signed the agreement on the Shandong issue. In that agreement, Japan's investment in the occupied German colonies and Japan's investment in China's Shandong during the European War were purchased by China at a discounted price. He was not a radical in foreign affairs.
The question Shidehara Kijūrō raised now was simply more radical than the Army. Someone in the Army, forced by China's current strength, was considering how to defeat the Republic of China National Defense Force attacking Korea, but no fool was thinking of asking China to return the Kwantung Leased Territory to Japan according to the treaty through negotiations.
Nagata retorted calmly, "I wonder whose brilliant idea this is in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or is this the collective view of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs?"
As a Lieutenant General, answering with such polite sarcasm was not very appropriate in a sense, but it wasn't enough to make people feel it was insubordination. After all, Japanese Army generals were already high-ranking officers, and the division commander of a standing division in peacetime held the rank of Lieutenant General. For most high-ranking officers, Lieutenant General was the end of their lives.
But Nagata was different. 'War Hero' was Nagata's current halo. Before obtaining this realistic halo, Nagata was considered to possess the smartest brain in Japan. The vast majority of Japanese high-level officials believed that Lieutenant General was just the starting point for Nagata's next promotion.
So hearing Nagata's slight sarcasm, Shidehara Kijūrō was not angry. He asked, "Nagata-kun saying this, do you think it can't be done, or shouldn't be done?"
Nagata understood that the Foreign Minister was fishing for information and wanted to see his views. Since the conversation took place in front of *Genrō* Saionji, there was naturally no need to hide anything. If Saionji had no expectations for Nagata, he would not have convened such a meeting. Since that was the case, Nagata suddenly remembered Ishiwara's words and used them directly.
"If the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had mainly requested to establish diplomatic relations with the Chinese government on November 11 last year, He-kun's subordinates have always been in awe of Japan, and perhaps negotiations could have been held on many contents. If the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had communicated with the Chinese government before the British fleet was sunk, the Chinese people had long been tired of war, and the friendliness of the Japanese government could have made the Chinese people feel friendly. At this stage, which forces in China is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs preparing to communicate with?"
Hearing such a high-level analysis, Foreign Minister Shidehara Kijūrō's face was surprised and solemn. It could be seen that he initially didn't expect to hear a question of such a scope.
Nagata didn't care. Because after listening to Ishiwara's analysis, although he agreed with it himself, he couldn't find a solution. Instead of thinking blindly himself, it was better to throw the problem to the Foreign Minister to worry about.
At this time, Saionji smiled. He ate the food and raised his wine glass. "Nagata-kun, have a drink."
Nagata hurriedly raised his wine glass, tilting the cup slightly, clinking glasses with *Genrō* Saionji in a humble posture befitting his status. The two took a sip, and Saionji asked, "If Japan wants to restore trade with China as soon as possible, I wonder how the Army would view it?"
"Your Excellency. The Army's decision is naturally the responsibility of the Three Chiefs (Minister of War, Chief of General Staff, Inspector General of Military Training). This subordinate believes that if it is a short-term choice, the Army officers can understand the country's difficulties."
"Japan currently needs to formulate a long-term national policy. Does Nagata-kun have any views on this?" Saionji asked in a flat tone.
Nagata didn't answer immediately. Saionji was the only remaining *Genrō* in Japan now, and he had a very large say in personnel matters. Even within the Japanese Army, although Saionji could not intervene directly, Saionji had ways to get the people he fancied promoted.
But this was not without a price. If he accepted Saionji's arrangement, he had to complete the task Saionji wanted to complete. Moreover, Nagata also considered another possibility: Saionji just wanted to see the views within the Army.
Calculating for a moment, Nagata simply kicked the ball back to Foreign Minister Shidehara Kijūrō. "Your Excellency Shidehara, I wonder if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs intends to communicate with the Chinese side in the near future."
Shidehara Kijūrō said, "Recently, the *Asahi Shimbun* received an invitation from the *National Daily*, asking *Asahi Shimbun* to send reporters to China for interviews."
Nagata remembered Fukada Mitsuko at that time and laughed, "I wonder if the *National Daily* specially designated anyone?"
"In the conversation, China's *National Daily* specifically asked if reporter Fukada Mitsuko was still working at *Asahi Shimbun*. I wonder if Nagata-kun knows this person."
"I've heard of her," Nagata replied, understanding in his heart that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had its own ideas about this.
"Nagata-kun, both Britain and France recognized the Soviet Union this year and established diplomatic relations. Nagata-kun, who among the European countries do you think is most likely to recognize the He Rui government first?"
Nagata answered immediately, "If Germany does not encounter clear opposition from Britain, it may become the first country to recognize the He Rui regime. If Germany is under pressure from Britain and wants to probe, it may let Austria act first. After all, Germany and Austria have the least burden in diplomacy."
If one had to say, because Japan destroyed Germany's concession in Shandong, China, it actually made Germany and Austria the only two powers without concessions in China. Among the foreigners hanged on the gallows, there were no personnel from these two countries.
To Shidehara Kijūrō's ears, there was another meaning in these words. "Nagata-kun thinks Britain will pressure Japan?"
Nagata indeed thought so. He didn't answer this question but looked at Saionji, seeing a trace of hesitation in Saionji's expression. Seeing Nagata's bright gaze, Saionji simply asked directly, "Nagata-kun, how much influence do you think the He Rui regime can suffer under the British blockade?"
"Your Excellency, after completing the national land redemption, He Rui needs time to gain the support of the entire Chinese populace. The British blockade happens to limit Britain's influence in China. Once China's economy improves, he can use the British blockade to incite nationalist sentiments and continue to win time to stabilize China's internal affairs."
Saionji didn't answer. He and Shidehara Kijūrō looked at each other, and continued to eat in silence. Nagata knew that these two didn't have mature ideas either, and his views indeed put them in a difficult position again. So he also buried his head in eating. The dining room fell into silence, with only the slight sounds of table knives cutting food ringing out.
Shidehara Kijūrō had long heard of Nagata's reputation. However, the image of Army 'idiots' was so strong that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn't have special expectations for Nagata, a 40-year-old Lieutenant General. But chatting with Nagata for a moment now, he could fully feel that the comment about Nagata possessing the smartest brain in the Army was absolutely no problem.
Although this evaluation somewhat implied that Nagata's marksmanship, swordsmanship, horsemanship, etc., were very average. However, in the eyes of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the brain was the only important thing. The other aspect worth paying attention to was appearance and bearing. For diplomats, bonus points on image were very important. In terms of appearance and temperament, Nagata was definitely considered very good.
Saionji's family meal was not bad. But Nagata raised the scope to such a height that until they finished eating, the three didn't speak. During the time for after-dinner coffee, Saionji invited the two to the living room. Amidst the aroma of coffee, Shidehara Kijūrō asked, "What does Nagata-kun think of He-kun?"
Nagata didn't refuse to borrow other people's wisdom and directly moved Ishiwara's evaluation out. "He-kun governs the country: politics first, then economics. Military and diplomacy both serve these two. Looking at it now, his thinking is being executed very well. Presumably in the future, not only He-kun, but the cabinet members He-kun values will also have the same style."
Nagata effectively killed the conversation directly. Shidehara Kijūrō was speechless for a moment. No matter how brilliantly talented He Rui was, he was just one person. From the experience of various countries, every national cabinet had various members with their own considerations. If He Rui's subordinates also had He Rui's thinking, it meant that the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' attempt basically had no hope.
But Shidehara Kijūrō didn't give up; he said, "At the cabinet meeting, Finance Minister Takahashi requested the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to persuade the Chinese government to restore Sino-Japanese trade first. How does Nagata-kun think China's Ministry of Commerce will view this matter?"
"From a strategic perspective, what benefits can restoring Sino-Japanese trade bring to China's politics and economy? I wonder what Your Excellency Shidehara thinks?"
Nagata's words effectively killed this topic again. In the internal meetings of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, no matter what the personnel thought in their hearts, what they said was all about 'restoring Sino-Japanese trade is beneficial to China, and we must let China understand this.' So much so that Shidehara Kijūrō had to come to find Saionji Kinmochi, trying to get some guidance from *Genrō* Saionji.
And Saionji inviting Nagata made Shidehara Kijūrō feel a bit disappointed initially. Nagata was very sincere and didn't hide anything. So the disappointment caused by doubts about Nagata turned into despair after fully understanding reality.
Everyone was not stupid. Japan had always tried hard to make China a producer of cheap raw materials for Japan and a producer of cheap primary textiles. Such an economic structure had no damn benefit for China. Interrupting Sino-Japanese trade had almost a hundred benefits and no harm to China. Shidehara Kijūrō couldn't figure out what incredible conditions the Japanese government could offer to make the He Rui regime restore Sino-Japanese trade.
Given the current international political reality, interrupting Sino-Japanese trade would only continuously weaken Japan. Because the He Rui government hunted down Japanese *ronin* in the Japanese concession, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to issue a very low-key protest. The reaction of the He Rui government was to decisively terminate the trade between the entire China and Japan. From Nagata's analysis, the He Rui government had long been waiting for the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to express protest, and then executed the economic blow on the grounds of 'nationalist sentiment.'
Britain was now mobilizing pro-British Chinese compradors within China to compete with the He Rui government for the guidance of Chinese public opinion. The Japanese government also had some connections in China and tried to do the same. Britain and Japan immediately discovered that China's 'public opinion' was opposing these propagandas.
He Rui published the atrocities of British and Japanese concession personnel one by one in various newspapers. Those propagandas attempting to publicize that Britain and Japan sincerely wanted to maintain friendship with China collapsed of themselves.
After a news report "Indentured Laborers" was published in various newspapers, the image of 'Luchaibang' [Thin as a reed] inside, as well as the images of Japanese factory owners and Chinese foremen serving Japanese factory owners, shattered the claim that Britain and Japan provided job opportunities for China.
The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs actually felt very aggrieved because Japan not only did this in China, but Japanese factories also did this in Japan. But such things couldn't be publicized in China on a large scale.
Of course, Britain and Japan also conducted propaganda from another angle. 'If China expresses goodwill to Britain and Japan first, it can make the two countries realize that restoring relations with China is beneficial.'
The Chinese side retorted tit-for-tat: Why must China beg Britain and Japan to let them understand to bestow diplomatic relations on China? If there were no Britain and Japan on earth, would the earth stop turning?
Defeated repeatedly in the public opinion war, a greater crisis was approaching. It was now July 1924. In just another three months, those Chinese regions that had completed land reform would complete the harvest. Just a year ago, 80% of the citizens in China couldn't feed themselves from their own land. Three months later, they would find that they were living the dream life of self-sufficiency, a small peasant life feeding themselves.
The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs knew very well that the 80% of the populace in China would only think that He Rui gave them such a life. No one would think that Britain or Japan allowed the Chinese people to live such a life. Although many among the remaining 20% of the population were dissatisfied with He Rui, this did not mean that this group of people would support Britain and Japan because of this. Even among this remaining 20% of the Chinese population, at least 99% would not support Britain or Japan without any benefit.
Shidehara Kijūrō took a sip of coffee; the sour taste refreshed his spirit. He still asked the question he had hesitated to ask, "Nagata-kun, do you think Japan should cooperate deeply with Britain?"
Nagata had already considered this question and answered directly, "If we are to be used by Britain, for how long do we have to maintain such a relationship? How much price does Britain have to pay? I wonder what Shidehara-kun thinks?"
Shidehara Kijūrō didn't answer. He felt that Nagata was indeed an object worth deep cooperation. With Japan's currently deteriorating situation, one must cooperate with such a smart person. Otherwise, Japan would only fall into a more uncontrollable abyss.