Waning and Waxing (4)
Volume 4: Peace and Development · Chapter 44
On July 24, 1924, the new government published the "First National Population Census Report of China" and the "China Population Income Report" in the *National Daily*, a nationwide newspaper renamed from the *Northeast Daily*.
Countries that were not paying attention to the situation in China, such as Italy, Spain, and Belgium, did not take it seriously. Countries like Britain, France, the United States, Japan, and the Soviet Union sent the main data in the report to their home countries via telegram immediately, and the relevant newspapers were sent to their home countries by express mail.
The Japanese upper echelon received a thick stack of newspapers on July 26. Lieutenant General Nagata, Director of the National Mobilization Bureau, received the newspapers and immediately convened a meeting. National statistics can extremely clearly demonstrate the strength of a country, and the accuracy and credibility of the data are a reflection of the government's operational capability.
"China's population in 1924 is 480,092,794. The sampling rate was 8%, the duplicate counting rate was 0.8 per thousand, and the uncounted rate was 1.2 per thousand. China's per capita income is 50.1 yuan..."
There was no GDP statistical model in this era. The statistics of industrial countries were very hardcore, all based on national income from industrial and agricultural output value. The Japanese National Mobilization Bureau could obtain various data, including data provided by Japanese intelligence agencies. Under comprehensive analysis, the He Rui government's report data was basically consistent with Japan's judgment and was accepted.
Nagata used the 1922 Japanese national income data, which was about 15.5 billion yen, equivalent to 15.5 billion Chinese yuan. At this time, the comparison between China and Japan was 240:155. Considering the population of both sides, China's population was ten times that of Japan's mainland population, so China did not occupy an overwhelming advantage.
But the people in the Mobilization Bureau did not feel relaxed. Because the Great Kanto Earthquake dealt a heavy blow to the Japanese economy, it even made it impossible for Japan to effectively complete the 1923 economic statistics. According to known data from various departments, Japan's industrial output value was about 7.7 billion yen in 1922, and it likely remained only about 6.1 billion in 1923.
Due to China's unification war, Sino-Japanese trade was directly interrupted. The total industrial output value in 1924 likely remained only 5 billion.
Taking these data into account, the ratio of total national income between China and Japan had reached 2:1. This was not the most terrifying part. The Japanese economy showed no signs of improvement. According to content provided by Japanese intelligence personnel, because China implemented land reform and distributed land, the economy and social order were beginning to recover at a speed visible to the naked eye.
Although the war resulted in the He Rui government not being recognized, the Chinese government took back tariff autonomy and no longer paid indemnities. Foreign trade was affected, but the domestic economy became surprisingly active.
Nagata ordered the calculation department of the Japanese Mobilization Bureau to calculate with several different parameters. The result derived from the best-case scenario made Nagata directly order all data from this time to be classified as confidential. All participants were not allowed to disclose it to the outside, and unless the director agreed, these data could not be accessed.
At this time, most personnel of the Mobilization Bureau were listening to the introduction of the Chinese report, while Nagata recalled those disturbing data in his mind.
Previously, China's economy was largely controlled by foreign countries. Due to China's internal division, the rule of various separatist forces in rural areas was extremely weak, and their economy could only rely on customs tariffs. The Chinese customs being controlled by foreign countries directly led to the Chinese economy becoming very deformed.
The He Rui government completely smashed and rebuilt such a deformed economic structure with fierce means. At this time, China's foreign trade had a trade deficit. A large number of foreign industrial products were sold to China, eroding China's wealth and hitting China's industry and commerce.
In order to obtain customs tariffs, the old local governments could only expand the total volume of imports and exports. The old governments did get tariffs, but China's domestic industry and commerce suffered a huge blow.
Rural taxes were controlled by rural forces, resulting in most of the taxes actually being taken away by rural forces. The situation of "if the superiors increase the tax by one *wen*, the tax on the poor increases by ten *wen*" appeared.
After the He Rui government came to power, rural taxes could be collected. China's industry and commerce finally recovered from the impact of foreign goods. The increase in industrial and commercial taxes not only made up for the loss of tariffs but even exceeded it somewhat.
In the secret calculation of the Japanese Mobilization Bureau, the actual data of China's per capita national income was about 100 yuan, twice the current figure. The reason why it could not be reflected before was that the political and social systems were suppressing and destroying such wealth production. As long as the He Rui government continued to stably implement current policies, the Chinese economy could reach 48 billion in 1925. Japan's economy, slow to see improvement, would likely hover around 12 billion. The power balance between China and Japan would reach 4:1.
Nagata was not a person who dared not face reality. Reality was reality. By 1925, the direct damage of the Great Kanto Earthquake should be recovered, and the ongoing reconstruction of Tokyo would be preliminarily completed. However, Japan would likely not recognize the Chinese government that had regained control of customs, which meant that Sino-Japanese trade would continue to be cut off. The past trade of 1.1 billion yen annually between Japan and China could not be restored. The Japanese economy would still be very sluggish.
The statistical content of the Chinese government was not much and was finished quickly. There was silence in the conference room of the Japanese Mobilization Bureau. Those qualified to attend the meeting were Japanese elites who could understand economics. In front of the power comparison shown by the cold numbers, everyone temporarily didn't know what to say.
Having smashed the exploitation of Chinese laborers by forces inside and outside China, with the He Rui government's 30% tax rate, the tax revenue in 1924 would reach 7.2 billion. Even if the Japanese government squeezed the last bit of wealth from the entire Japan and invested everything into the war, a defensive China already possessed a huge advantage. The Chinese government could likely easily wage a long-term war against an attacking Japan just by issuing some war bonds.
Judging from the situation of the previous war, Japan's ability to sustain the war would be at most no more than 24 months. After 24 months, all the Japanese upper echelons who led the launch of the war would have to commit seppuku to apologize. Those who survived would have to face a chaotic Japan that had been thoroughly squeezed dry, a fate worse than death.
Lieutenant General Nagata broke the silence. "Based on the current situation, gentlemen need to find a way out for the Empire. In this meeting, please speak freely."
From the perspective of magnanimity, Nagata was very outstanding among the core upper echelon of Japan. Since he wanted everyone to speak freely, the elites of the Japanese Mobilization Bureau didn't think Nagata was joking, and everyone put forward their own views.
No one proposed the direction of military conquest of China, not even a hint that Manchuria and Mongolia were Japan's lifelines. The common characteristic of the elites was that they were extremely realistic and absolutely did not mention things that could not be done. Nagata listened for a while and was very disappointed in his heart.
Last November, when He Rui announced himself as the central government, Ishiwara Kanji proposed in a 'joking' manner at the General Staff meeting to immediately recognize the He Rui regime and negotiate with the He Rui regime on this basis.
Nine months had passed, and the views of this group of Japanese elites still failed to exceed Ishiwara's vision at that time. Nagata had to listen carefully to the analysis of this group of people now, trying to find some truly useful content. After listening for a long time, the only suggestion that could truly show goodwill was the exchange of prisoners of war and personnel detained by both sides.
Even such a pragmatic proposal met with opposition. "Given the current economic situation in Japan, so many people coming back will only cause chaos."
This remark did not displease Nagata because the reason for opposition was very reasonable. After the Sino-Japanese war, both sides began to detain the other side's personnel in their own countries. Japan detained about 10,000 people, and the Northeast Government detained more than 100,000.
The 10,000 Chinese were all poor people with no profit to be squeezed. The more than 100,000 Japanese detained by the Northeast Government had considerable property in the Northeast. In addition to these more than 100,000 Japanese residents, there were about 60,000 Japanese prisoners of war. Releasing 200,000 people back to Japan would only add heavy social problems to the current Japan.
Keeping this group of people in China could indeed avoid many problems. However, doing so also had problems. The Japanese side also used the detained Chinese as hard labor, which was fiercely criticized by He Rui when he seized the opportunity. Based on the principle of reciprocity, He Rui made full use of the approximately 200,000 Japanese personnel in his hands.
Even in these unsavory situations, Japan had no advantage. It infuriated the Japanese side enough, but they could do nothing. Because job opportunities in Japan were scarce, and there was too much infrastructure to be completed in China's vast territory. The Japanese side could only let the captured Chinese work in mines and other places. To avoid China's 'reciprocal retaliation,' the labor intensity could not be particularly high to avoid deaths. The benefits squeezed from these people were extremely low.
The Chinese side let Japanese personnel 'grow potatoes' and conduct basic development in those areas with harsh environments. It is said that up to now, Japanese captives have developed hundreds of thousands of *mu* of potato fields for China. The potatoes produced met the food consumption of the Japanese captives. While feeding themselves, the Japanese detainees continuously reclaimed new land for China.
The discussion was arduous but pragmatic. In the end, the conclusion reached by the Japanese Mobilization Bureau was very cliché: 'Peace is the best.'
After the meeting, Nagata drove to the New Technology Training Bureau. Nagata recalled reports regarding Ishiwara stating that Japanese officers who had undergone new technology training all considered Ishiwara an extremely outstanding tactician. This was inevitably a bit laughable.
In the eyes of Nagata, Okamura, and others who had cooperated deeply with Ishiwara, Ishiwara was a strategist. But in the eyes of the Japanese upper and lower classes, Ishiwara, a war hero, was an extremely outstanding tactician. This proved that Nagata's arrangement for Ishiwara had achieved its goal. While Nagata could borrow Ishiwara's strategic vision, he prevented others from having unnecessary expectations of Ishiwara.
The two sat down under the pergola on the playground of the New Technology Training Bureau. Nagata frankly recounted the 'peace' viewpoint within the Mobilization Bureau. He saw Ishiwara amused to the point of laughter. Nagata waited patiently for Ishiwara to finish laughing; he felt Ishiwara was qualified to laugh like this.
Ishiwara wasn't mocking; he just felt it was too funny. After his mirth was vented, he asked, "Nagata-kun, I agree with those people's views. But what is the object of this peace?"
This was exactly the purpose of Nagata's visit. Nagata immediately asked, "Ishiwara-kun, what do you think the object of peace should be?"
"If peace can be established at present, it must be to make the Chinese people realize that the Japanese people want to achieve peace with the Chinese people, and to make the Chinese people believe that peace is beneficial. Last November, if we had chosen peace, He-kun's subordinates would have felt that peace was beneficial to them. The current situation is completely different. The autumn harvest is about to begin in northern China, and the second crop has already been planted in the south. When the harvest is complete, what benefits can actively seeking peace bring to He-kun's subordinates? All they need is not to actively initiate a war."
Nagata fell silent. The purpose of his trip had been achieved. Ishiwara provided a very good perspective, allowing Nagata to see the current situation clearly. The Japanese elites looked at the past, trying to seek a future path from the past with determined results. What Ishiwara focused on was the future triggered by the changing present; their visions were poles apart. This was probably why Ishiwara could always rank first effortlessly in all strategy-related courses.
Amidst the silence, Ishiwara continued, "He-kun solved the most critical contradiction in China right now. About 20% of the Chinese people suddenly gained stability from the dilemma of whether they could survive tomorrow. 50% of the Chinese people originally lived poor and helpless lives with no future. He-kun provided them with a present free from the threat of hunger, as well as hope for the future. The Chinese people may not realize anything this year, but they will awaken within three years at most. They will discover that they can also be treated as human beings. Nagata-kun, I actually expect you to make the upper echelons understand such changes. Formulating Japan's future national policy needs to be based on such a cognitive foundation."
These words made Nagata firmer in one view: Ishiwara must not be allowed to enter the core of power now. What Japan needed most now was stability, allowing the economy to recover with the reconstruction of the Kanto region. Ishiwara's political views were too attractive to the Japanese lower class. Once Ishiwara had the opportunity to gain power, he was very likely to guide the Japanese situation, which would inevitably trigger a comprehensive civil strife in Japan.
"Ishiwara-kun, what choice do you think the awakened Chinese people will make?" Nagata asked.
"China's geopolitical environment is completely different from Japan's. I read the recently signed Sino-Soviet Treaty of Peace and Friendship; its content is truly admirable. He-kun signed an agreement that is almost impossible to tear up. This agreement can at least ensure that China will place its main strategic direction in the south for the visible 20 years. And the awakened Chinese people will also devote themselves to actions against the Western world."
Speaking of this, Ishiwara looked at Nagata but didn't say anything. Nagata saw the hesitation of wanting to speak but stopping, so he encouraged, "Just say it. Does Ishiwara-kun think my magnanimity cannot tolerate different views?"
Ishiwara shook his head slightly. "It's not a different view. Nagata-kun, that is a determination to walk a new path. If Japan cannot completely get rid of unrealistic expectations of Britain, it is impossible to make a more rational judgment."
Nagata was somewhat shaken in his heart, but replied calmly, "We will not be used by Britain. Because of the situation in China, we will only use Britain in reverse."
He thought such an answer would be accepted by Ishiwara, but unexpectedly, Ishiwara sneered again. "Hehe, Nagata-kun, this is exactly what I am worried about. Britain has huge resources, and Britain will not be stingy in giving up part of its interests when needed. That is to say, as long as Japan has the idea of using Britain in its heart, it is destined to be used by Britain."