Chapter 289: Sino-Japanese General Mobilization (1)
Volume 3: First War · Chapter 69
The Japanese Imperial Conference had its established format. Prince Regent Hirohito, as usual, watched the cabinet meeting proceed before him without uttering a word. The newly appointed Prime Minister, Kiyoura Keigo, asked how many troops the Army required. After receiving the figure of 1.5 million, he made no further comment.
Next, he asked the Navy Minister when the candidate for the commander of the 2nd Manchuria-Mongolia Expeditionary Army could be proposed.
Then, he inquired about the Foreign Minister's judgment on the current diplomatic situation, specifically the stance and attitude of the Great Powers toward the current war.
When Hirohito heard Foreign Minister Uchida Kosai speak, he turned his face slightly. For the Prince Regent, this was already a sign of significant attention. According to the rules, Hirohito should maintain a formal sitting posture, his body remaining in that state, with absolutely no expression on his face.
Uchida Kosai reported on his meeting with the British Minister to Japan: "Facing our country's inquiry regarding the long-standing Anglo-Japanese friendship, the British Minister stated that the British government attaches great importance to Anglo-Japanese friendship, and the Minister personally expressed his support for our country. However, Britain's specific actions must await the decision of Downing Street. Regarding our government's proposal to issue bonds in London and Paris, the Minister stated that the British government would certainly provide commercial assistance."
Although Uchida Kosai's tone was very calm, the displeasure in his expression was visible. Even though he had known long ago that Britain would not send troops, hearing the other party confirm it in person still disappointed the Japanese Foreign Minister somewhat. Britain was not providing any real help at this time.
Uchida Kosai did not specifically introduce other countries. If even Britain was not providing help, there was no need to consider other Great Powers at all.
Finally, the Minister of Finance, Takahashi Korekiyo, was questioned. Takahashi Korekiyo simply stated that he would provide an opinion on the military budget proposal as soon as possible. At this moment, no one expressed any dissatisfaction with Takahashi Korekiyo. The specific military plan had just been determined, and the Ministry of Finance also needed time to analyze the proposal.
Confirming that all ministers had completed their basic work, Prime Minister Kiyoura Keigo said with a heavy expression: "Given the current war situation and the enemy's strength, Japan will officially begin Type B General Mobilization on November 15th. Do you gentlemen believe your departments can complete preparations within the specified time?"
Only Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo indicated that if the General Mobilization began on the 16th, the Ministry of Finance could prepare a bit more fully. Kiyoura Keigo immediately rejected the Ministry of Finance's request.
***
With the meeting reaching this point, according to procedure, Hirohito's Chief Aide-de-Camp, Nijō Koichi, asked: "The Army's latest report indicates that the Northeast Government's military industrial strength can maintain an army of over a million for several years of war. Can the military industrial production capacity of the Army and the Northeast Government be considered indistinguishable?"
The new Army Minister, Yamanashi Hanzō, was not a 'Shōwa Staff Officer' but an old-school soldier. So Yamanashi Hanzō answered frankly: "According to the latest investigation, after Britain stopped aiding the White Russians two years ago, they no longer provided Chilean saltpeter to the Northeast Government. The Northeast Army has adopted the same method Germany used in the European War, producing nitric acid by manufacturing synthetic ammonia. They no longer need to import saltpeter for weapon and ammunition production. This is also the reason for the Empire's misjudgment. The Northeast Government's synthetic ammonia technology comes from France. Through inquiries to the manufacturing company, it was found that as early as two years ago, the company stopped providing synthetic ammonia equipment and components to the Northeast. Based on the current war situation, it is believed that the Northeast Government has completely mastered and digested the synthetic ammonia production technology. The Northeast Government can self-produce the other metals and processing required for military industry. Although the current intelligence is not complete enough, it cannot be regarded as impossible to self-produce."
Although many of the Japanese bigwigs already knew the current situation, hearing the Army Minister admit with his own mouth that the Japanese Army was about to fight an equal opponent still made the bigwigs feel a heavy pressure.
Nijō Koichi turned to Uchida Kosai, "Foreign Minister, according to intelligence obtained by the Ministry of Finance, the Northeast Army's annual iron ore trade with Soviet Russia now exceeds 300,000 tons, and coal transactions are nearly one million tons. Is there any way to influence this?"
Uchida Kosai had indeed considered methods, but at this moment he could only say vaguely: "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has indeed given it some thought, but looking at it holistically, we cannot cause a break in relations between the Northeast and Soviet Russia. The Northeast sells over 100,000 tons of steel and 200,000 tons of iron to Soviet Russia annually, which is already the sum of Soviet Russia's entire domestic steel production. Soviet Russia's steel demand, especially in the Far East, is met by exporting ore to China in exchange for Chinese steel and steel products. Although Soviet Russia cannot obtain steel from the Northeast Government in the short term during the war, Soviet Russia will promote the Northeast Government's steel exports by expanding ore exports."
This was not good news either, or rather, it was very terrible news. As for how terrible, Hirohito's Chief Aide-de-Camp Nijō Koichi asked the Finance Minister, "Your Excellency Takahashi. Based on the Ministry of Finance's intelligence, what is the Northeast Government's actual steel production? What is the Empire's steel production?"
"The Empire produced 830,000 tons of steel in 1921. After the Ministry of Finance adjusted its statistical method for the Northeast Government, the Northeast Government produced at least 950,000 tons of steel in 1921. It was only because one-third of it was exported to Soviet Russia that our misjudgment was caused."
Adhering to the single-minded characteristic caused by extreme involution, the Japanese side had re-evaluated the Northeast Government's strength very seriously. The conclusion of the serious evaluation made the faces of the bigwigs gloomy. Some questions were cancelled.
There was no need to pierce the veil at this moment on matters that could be clarified by privately transferring reports. Doing so would only intensify contradictions, rather than uniting to deal with the Northeast as expected.
After Foreign Minister Uchida Kosai ended the meeting, he directly ordered his secretary to go to the data statistics department under the leadership of the Ministry of Finance and ask them to provide the latest assessment of the Northeast's industrial strength. Uchida Kosai, upon getting the report, felt he couldn't believe his eyes. Uchida Kosai was so angry he couldn't read on for a moment, taking off his glasses and throwing them on the table. After a while, Uchida Kosai picked up his glasses, wiped them carefully, and looked again.
***
The forecast report provided by the Ministry of Finance was divided into conservative estimates and radical estimates. What was submitted to the Prime Minister was the conservative estimate. Soviet Russia was isolated by the world, and trade between the Northeast and Soviet Russia was completely opaque. The radical assessment took this factor completely into account, believing that the Northeast might have produced over 1.2 million tons of steel in 1921.
In other words, before implementing strategic deception, the Northeast Government had also concealed its industrial capacity through many means. Or perhaps, the Northeast Government utilized the outside world's contempt for China to successfully keep the outside world in the dark about the Northeast's actual industrial capacity.
If in mid-1922, everyone in Japan believed that the Northeast was an industrial zone with an annual output of over 950,000 tons of steel, the current situation would be completely different.
But there is no medicine for regret in the world; regretting is useless. Uchida Kosai decided to play some of the cards he currently held to see if he could influence the relationship between the Northeast and Russia. Even if it wasn't very useful, at least he could test it out.
Thinking of this, Uchida Kosai called his secretary and asked him to invite the person in charge of the European Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.