Chapter 287: Preparation for Winter (13)
Volume 3: First War · Chapter 67
Looking at the press conference content provided by the American newspapers first, US Ambassador Schurman had not expected He Rui to display such a diplomatic blunder. In the eyes of the outside world, especially the diplomatic community, the potential establishment of diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union could be interpreted in two ways.
First, He Rui was announcing his intention to seize political power in China. Second, if the war failed, He Rui might request Soviet protection in the name of the Northeast Government.
Whichever it was, it was out of character for an outstanding diplomat like He Rui. This move was too reckless, to the point where it could be considered a diplomatic incident.
Schurman had intended to leave, but he still requested to see He Rui one more time. Soon, the two met. It was a private meeting with just the two of them. Schurman smiled, "Your Excellency's statement at the press conference has caused quite a sensation."
"It will be viewed as a diplomatic incident. I do not deny that," He Rui replied calmly.
Schurman was somewhat surprised. "What is Your Excellency's objective?"
He Rui said flatly, "Even if someone from the diplomatic community explained it to the Central Government, and the Central Government fully understood these explanations, they wouldn't care. Ambassador Schurman should be very clear about this."
Schurman merely nodded slightly, mentally adding a modifier to He Rui: 'Dictator'.
However, the American diplomatic community held no particular view on dictators. There were so many authoritarian regimes in the world; one more He Rui was no big deal. Schurman steered the topic back to the Soviet Union. "As a political force bordering the Soviet Union, what are Your Excellency's expectations for the future?"
"Equal diplomacy, peaceful development, and the avoidance of war. This is the Northeast Government's long-term positioning for relations with the Soviet Union."
This was a completely imaginable choice. Schurman believed that an authoritarian regime was actually better able to guarantee policy execution over a certain period. Since this was the case, Schurman changed his expression to a smile. "The United States understands Japan's oppression of China. Based on the current international political environment, the United States cannot provide substantial assistance to China. However, the United States has consistently supported just struggles against colonial oppression. Therefore, I will clearly point out to my government the substantive factors of the war between the Northeast and Japan."
He Rui had never considered relying on any external force to win the war. This American statement was the traditional emphasis of 'aside from substantial help, we will provide you with all help'. He Rui's response was targeted at this situation. "Japan possesses the world's third-largest navy and the Far East's strongest army, which constitutes a threat to the security of the West Pacific. Moreover, Japan is using this power to oppress and invade China; this is the cause of the war. I believe the United States is a peace-loving nation, so I look forward to building a peaceful and stable friendly relationship in the West Pacific together with the United States in the future. If the American side has needs regarding cooperation, I will arrange for Chief Administrator Wu Youping to be responsible for this matter."
A stone fell from Schurman's heart. For a US Minister to discuss US-Northeast economic cooperation with a British subject would obviously be a diplomatic failure. That was why Schurman had made the 'joke' about an American serving as Deputy Director of the China Merchants Bureau.
Now that He Rui had relented, Schurman's diplomatic pressure was suddenly reduced. Since the situation had reached this stage, Schurman offered a suggestion. "I look forward to exploring more imaginative and constructive directions with Your Excellency."
He Rui smiled faintly. Americans did not understand why He Rui had such far-reaching vision, because they could not imagine that He Rui had 'seen it'. Since that was the case, He Rui could only play along with the Americans step by step, waiting for the United States to make its choice. Although He Rui already knew how they would choose.
In fact, the possibilities for the American choice were no secret to people of insight worldwide. He Rui's advantage lay in his ability to more accurately grasp the steps of the American choice. Even while Washington was racking its brains over how to choose, He Rui already knew how the US would inevitably choose under specific international situations.
After a round of simple diplomatic routines, Schurman left satisfied. Upon returning to his residence, he immediately tore up the previous report, which had had meager results, and rewrote it based on the current situation.
> "...He Rui fully understands the target of Japan's fleet in the West Pacific; its behavior has de facto challenged the Versailles System.
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> Mr. Secretary, according to my observations, He Rui is a leader of a Chinese regional authoritarian regime with a global vision. It is highly likely that he will possess policy decision-making power in a future China.
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> Politically, He Rui is clearly influenced by leftist ideas and is also a politician with strong nationalist sentiments. His leftist ideas are clearly reflected in the major economic policies of the Civilization Party he leads. This has resulted in the economic interests of landlords and the wealthy suffering a significant impact under the Northeast's New Economic Policy.
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> However, his leftist ideas have united the poor and the lower classes, and his nationalist sentiments have united the educated middle class, constructing the relatively stable political structure that now exists in the Northeast.
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> The policies adopted by He Rui's authoritarian government are friendly to trade, and its administrative organizational capability is relatively strong, which is helpful for promoting US foreign trade.
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> It can be considered that He Rui launched the war against Japan to satisfy the nationalist sentiments of the Civilization Party members he leads, as well as China's educated social middle class. And he is attempting to win more political legitimacy through this war.
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> Based on He Rui's characteristics, and the fact that the actions taken align with US interests, I suggest continuing to expand friendly exchanges with the Northeast Government. We may consider engaging in investment with the Northeast Government..."
In a qualified modern government, the actions of all public servants are within their scope of authority. Ambassador Schurman wrote a report to his direct superior, and after seeing Schurman off, He Rui also received a report from the General Staff.
> "...Based on intelligence regarding recent Japanese troop movements and domestic conscription efforts in Japan, the Japanese side clearly has no plan to launch a counteroffensive in the short term, but has instead begun conscripting soldiers domestically.
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> Japan has a mature military service system. There are about 370,000 military-age men who can be quickly conscripted, and the number of soldiers meeting conscription standards is around 1.67 million. Since our army has already annihilated 90,000 Japanese troops, plus the permanent attrition caused by casualties in the second phase of the campaign, given Japan's determination for war, our side will likely have to face 1.5 million Japanese troops in the third phase of the campaign, which will begin within half a year.
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> Our army has been continuously conscripting since the summer of '22, and the current troop strength has reached 940,000. This is not enough to cope with a Japanese offensive. Therefore, the General Staff has completed a new phase of the conscription plan. The goal is to expand our combat troop strength to 1.2 million and auxiliary troop strength to 800,000 by February 1923, to cope with the Japanese offensive.
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> The new phase conscription plan is attached to this report.
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> Based on the scale of the war, the General Staff suggests that simultaneous with the start of the conscription plan, the Northeast should fully implement wartime total economic mobilization. This is to raise sufficient troops and supplies to wage a protracted war.
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> Acting Chief of General Staff, Zhong Yifu. November 7, 1922."
Since the Beiyang Government had dispatched Wang Shizhen to express that Beiyang would definitely resist with full force any Japanese military action that might invade Shandong or Zhili, He Rui had transferred Commissar Zhong Yifu back to the General Staff from Shanhaiguan to serve as Acting Chief of General Staff. Zhong Yifu's report also proved that his ability was sufficient for the role.
Seeing the request to initiate economic total mobilization, He Rui was still somewhat unwilling. Once economic mobilization began, it would have a very large impact on the economy of an industrial nation. If possible, any industrial nation would delay economic mobilization for a day if it could.
For example, Germany in World War II did not begin economic mobilization until 1943. Even in 1944, Germany's total mobilization was carried out very half-heartedly.
This was not because Nazi Germany did not understand war and economics, nor because Nazi Germany's leaders were arrogant, nor because Nazi Germany did not know that Britain and the Soviet Union had already engaged in total mobilization and wartime economics since 1941, and even the United States had begun wartime economic mobilization.
The little mustache had promised the German people that he would not let Germany return to the tragic situation of World War I. To fulfill this political promise, Germany would not do so until absolutely necessary.
He Rui had not made such a political promise, and neither had the Civilization Party nor the Northeast Government. The biggest obstacle to total mobilization now was that the Chinese people had never had experience with total mobilization in an industrial society. In countries with total mobilization experience, the people knew how war was generally fought, and the people knew why they were being mobilized. Such mandatory policies were not because the war could no longer be sustained, but were management means adopted by the government to achieve victory in the war.
In Chinese history, regarding the impression of total mobilization, the Tang Dynasty poet Du Fu wrote a famous poem, *"The Official at Shihao"* (Shihao Li).
He Rui certainly had no opportunity to ask Du Fu whether the great poet understood total mobilization, nor could he ask for the poet's views on it. However, when He Rui was in middle school, his Chinese literature teacher had asked, 'At dusk I sought lodging in Shihao Village, a recruiting officer came to seize people at night. What does this illustrate?'
He Rui was indeed in his rebellious teenage phase back then and liked to make shocking statements. Most importantly, He Rui genuinely felt that the Official at Shihao was not arresting people for his own sake. The teacher's question naturally required a quick answer, and He Rui knew the teacher wanted to hear the students' negative evaluation of the official. But He Rui really didn't feel the official was in the wrong.
After holding it in for a few seconds, He Rui blurted out, "It illustrates the Official at Shihao's intelligence and capability."
The classmates laughed, and the Chinese teacher said helplessly: 'XX, you've ruined the words intelligence and capability.'
He Rui had been criticized countless times and had been unconvinced countless times. But this time, He Rui willingly admitted that his choice of words was indeed inappropriate. However, He Rui didn't feel there was anything wrong with the starting point of his thinking.
When He Rui grew up to the point where he could understand mobilization systems, he saw even more clearly that as a poem about total mobilization, *"The Official at Shihao"* showed that Du Fu understood the system of that time very well.
This was a complete total mobilization system. The social management level of the Tang Dynasty was among the most advanced in the world at the time, as could be seen from the content of its mobilization.
The An Lushan Rebellion was a total rebellion by the An Lushan clique. Therefore, in *"The Official at Shihao"*, these were not the private soldiers of a regional military governor, but the regular army. 'Garrison at Yecheng' implied that the three sons of this household in Shihao Village were not members of the standing army, but had been pulled to Yecheng to participate in the defensive battle. The sons could still write letters home to inform them of the situation at the front, indicating that the postal system of the time had not collapsed.
The situation of the Qing Dynasty was completely different from that of the An Lushan Rebellion in the Tang Dynasty. The Qing had been strung up and beaten by foreign powers, and China's self-confidence was completely gone. The Qing's conscription system was completely abolished, and the intuitive feelings of the people amidst repeated defeats were different from those of people in a modern industrial nation. Once 'men were grabbed' in an ordinary village, it meant the war had already approached the doorstep.
Although the Northeast Government's grassroots construction had been ongoing for seven years, and training had never fallen behind, and the people had personally experienced what going to other places was like through various regular military trainings and water conservancy construction projects, this did not mean the current people of the Northeast were already people of a modern industrial nation.
More importantly, the Japanese across from them had experience with victory. Their people knew that once they won, they could obtain ceded territory and indemnities, and the people could at least lick up the crumbs dropped by the upper class. Moreover, after arriving in the colonies, even the bottom of the barrel could obtain social status and privileges exceeding those of the locals.
But in the experience of the Chinese people, aside from bearing the cost of war, they would get nothing. This was also why He Rui wanted to avoid economic mobilization as much as possible.
The people of the Northeast could accept family members being conscripted. But once the economy was controlled, to what extent could the people accept it? This might not necessarily be solved by propaganda.
He Rui thought for a while, then asked his secretary to call Wu Youping. Wu Youping arrived very quickly, bringing a few documents with him. He Rui asked Wu Youping to sit over by the sofa and report on the preparations for economic mobilization.
Wu Youping also looked unwilling, but replied, "Chairman, I believe that if necessary, we can begin economic mobilization."
Since Wu Youping had said so, He Rui asked directly, "Then to what extent has the grassroots economic mobilization management system been prepared?"
Wu Youping's expression was solemn and serious, the unwillingness gone. "Every village head, town mayor, and branch secretary has completed the third round of economic mobilization education. According to reports and spot checks, the mobilization education has been carried out very thoroughly. Inspections within the cities have been completed; the details of factory production conversion, the placement of military representatives, and the liaison with those departments have all been completed. The production content, production capacity, and conversion directions for workshops, village and town enterprises, and private enterprises in the villages and towns have also all been formulated. The final bottom-up investigation is currently underway. Regarding the transport, inspection, and warehousing of raw materials for some military supplies that can be transferred to village and town collective production, given our production experience for the European Great War and the Russian Civil War, we can also ensure a smooth process. At most four days, once the summary of the bottom-up investigation is reported, we can begin economic mobilization at any time."
He Rui very much wanted to show the General Staff's report to Wu Youping, but he still hesitated. But matters of state could not be delayed; He Rui stood up, brought the report over, and handed it to Wu Youping. After Wu Youping finished reading it, his expression actually relaxed quite a bit. He Rui felt that it was good to be young; one could be easily satisfied. Whereas his own mood truly could not relax.
Of course, He Rui also felt this might be because he was a person from another era, an era where China's strength exceeded that of the United States and was number one in the world. So mentally, he was undoubtedly more calm and composed. If even China panicked, wouldn't all the other countries in the world—except for those that had already decided to lie down and take the beating—go crazy trying to struggle in the chaos?
But in the other timeline, Japan, with a national power only 5% of China's, currently had a national power clearly superior to the Northeast's. The impact of such a gap in mood on He Rui was actually much greater than on outstanding youths like Wu Youping. After all, in the last seven years, core cadres like Wu Youping had been in a period of rapid ascent. While the Northeast He Rui saw was worlds apart from the Northeast he defaulted to in his heart.
Wu Youping certainly could not understand He Rui's true mood. Seeing that conscription was only on a scale of 2 million, Wu Youping was somewhat delighted. "Chairman, we don't need to conscript up to 4 million?"
He Rui shook his head. "Of course not. The first phase of the campaign has already proven that our army's basic tactics are superior to the Japanese army's. Intelligence obtained from captured equipment and the interrogation of Japanese prisoners proves our pre-war judgment: Japan's main equipment is still at the pre-WWI level. Furthermore, the equipment from the European theater in WWI is not suitable for the Japanese army. Japan has also clearly experienced a gap in follow-up equipment R&D. It is impossible to close this gap within two years."
"Hearing the Chairman say this, I am relieved. If it is only 2 million troops, the impact on Northeast industrial production will be much smaller than 4 million. The impact on the current iteration of industrial production technology is far smaller than imagined. Chairman, I have another request. Can we strengthen the content regarding adult re-education in the mobilization order?"
He Rui trusted Minister of Education Zhao Tianlin very much, and Zhao Tianlin had a very thorough understanding of vocational education, so He Rui had not paid special attention to the adult re-education part. Hearing Wu Youping specifically mention it, he could only ask, "Strengthen it to what extent?"
Wu Youping answered immediately, "Our compulsory education is mandatory. Can we take this opportunity to make adult re-education mandatory as well?"
"Mandatory adult education... Can the economy sustain it?" He Rui sighed.
By the 21st century, even the worst countries would have a significant proportion of the population realizing that education was an important link in changing the country. Even the Taliban, after taking power for the second time, knew that education could not stop.
But knowing this was one thing; being able to do it was another. It could not be solved just by shouting slogans. It required real money investment.
Just as the entirety of India knew education was right, India's per capita social services in the first 20 years of the 21st century were only at the level of China in the 1970s. India's development hovered at that level.
Of course, China's social service level in the 1970s was not low. If the level had been low, where would all those junior and primary school graduates who entered the factories after the Reform and Opening Up have come from?
The Northeast had only been building for seven years; its economic level could in no way compare to New China in 1970. Wu Youping was too optimistic.