Flowing Downstream (3)
Volume 4: Peace and Development · Chapter 63
Central Bank Governor Qiu Zhenwei was a second-generation immigrant from Shandong to the Northeast. He had the tall stature common to Shandong people, with solid muscles, looking powerful. His age was also the average of 29 for He Rui's government officials. Coupled with his Shandong-accented Mandarin, he gave an impression of impatience and toughness.
Sitting down in front of Wu Youping, Qiu Zhenwei said, "Premier, the Central Bank's ability to statistically analyze consumption power is not at the level we imagined."
Seeing Qiu Zhenwei admitting defeat right away, Wu Youping laughed, "Eat first."
That being said, the two, like most high-ranking officials, didn't have much of an appetite when eating, and the topic naturally turned to work.
Swallowing a mouthful of shredded pork with green peppers, Qiu Zhenwei introduced the bank and rural credit cooperative system currently being rolled out across the country. "There is a shortage of people and experience now. Farmers also completely misunderstand rural credit cooperatives, viewing them as loan sharks..."
Wu Youping listened seriously, secretly criticizing the level of village cadres. But at present, even the level of county governments was helpless. If village and town cadres could thoroughly understand the business and business principles of rural credit cooperatives, cadres of such a level would be promoted to work in the city.
One of the purposes of Qiu Zhenwei's meeting this time was to pour out his grievances heavily, so naturally he didn't hide anything and poured out the various problems in rural areas like pouring beans out of a bamboo tube to Wu Youping.
"...The members of the credit cooperatives can't distinguish between productive loans and consumption loans, nor do they have the will to figure it out. Several rounds of training have been conducted, infuriating the training personnel. Since there aren't that many high school students, can you give us a batch of junior high school students..."
Hearing that he came to ask for people again, Wu Youping was also helpless. According to the education plan, a large number of junior high school students would graduate in the late stage of the Second Five-Year Plan. Only when the Third Five-Year Plan was completed would it be the harvest time for talents when university students began to graduate in large numbers.
After Qiu Zhenwei finished complaining, Wu Youping said, "Do commercial banks have any methods for the current situation?"
"The loan risk is right here; what good methods can there be? Unless commercial banks shoulder the risk. Now even if we go to confiscate property... oh, enforce execution, those people have nothing at home. Are we going to drive people to death like in the old society?" Qiu Zhenwei sighed.
This was the current reality. The masses had no property, so naturally there was no object for collateral. Lending to them now carried considerable risk. To make the credit system run smoothly, the masses had to earn money first.
"What level has the people's consumption power estimated by the Central Bank reached now?" Wu Youping asked.
Qiu Zhenwei shook his head, his determined face looking somewhat fierce due to inner unhappiness. "According to the new statistical standards proposed by the State Council, data from various places is seriously insufficient, so we can only forcefully estimate. The average annual consumption power of each Chinese person is less than 3 yuan."
The new statistical standards were formulated by the State Council led by Wu Youping, so hearing such a number, Wu Youping couldn't help laughing, "That's actually quite a lot! I thought the per capita consumption power was only a little over 1 yuan."
Qiu Zhenwei couldn't help smiling bitterly. "Let me change my phrasing: between 1 and 3 yuan."
Wu Youping nodded and picked up a chopstick of shredded potatoes to eat. The consumption power in the statistical standards was not the money spent, but the spending after deducting essential survival expenses like food. The value of the newly issued Renminbi of the Republic was 1 yuan equals the purchasing power of one Yuan Shikai silver dollar. Three Yuan Shikai silver dollars were equivalent to a little more than 2 taels of silver. Based on the upper limit of the range Qiu Zhenwei just mentioned, if the average annual consumption power of each Chinese person was 3 yuan, China's 480 million people would have a consumption power of 1 billion taels.
However, any huge income averaged by a population of 480 million would become negligible. Even 1 billion taels of silver was definitely not much.
Daily life necessities: clothing, food, housing, and transportation. Food ranked second; clothing was a considerable expense. People always had to have a place to live, and rent was another huge expense for the masses. Travel required transportation tools, and the range of action of two legs was very limited. That was why He Rui proposed 'Every family having a bicycle proves the successful completion of the First Five-Year Plan.'
After drinking two cups of wine, the alcohol went to his head, and Qiu Zhenwei spoke his heart out. "Premier Wu, I can't sleep all night now. I want to sleep, but I don't dare to sleep. But not sleeping won't solve the problem either. Based on our experience in the Northeast, rural credit cooperatives initially let many village heads act as brokers. Although they took some benefits when giving loans to villagers, they didn't go too far. After all, there was no shortage of land in the Northeast; one could earn money by working hard. The situation inside the Pass is really different; there are too many bad people! The key is that people's hearts are bad!"
Wu Youping could understand Qiu Zhenwei's mood. He poured another cup for Qiu Zhenwei and filled his own, then said, "Since you say so, I won't evaluate it first. Now about 5,000 rural credit cooperatives are to be established across the country. What do you plan to do?"
Qiu Zhenwei had prepared long ago and answered very readily at this time, "There are three main cadres in each credit cooperative. The bank can determine the integrity of these 15,000 people. Let's not mention their professional ability for now. We think this way: allow the brokers in the middle to charge a 1% handling fee. But it must be made clear to the masses that if the loan is approved, give the broker 1%; if not, absolutely no fee. If the broker takes benefits first, that's breaking the rules. In the future, this broker will be blacklisted and cannot have business with the bank."
Seeing Qiu Zhenwei coming to ask for policy, Wu Youping didn't answer immediately. After thinking for a while, Wu Youping said, "Any policy must have a sunset clause."
Qiu Zhenwei nodded. "It's hard to say about this time. How about setting it at 3 years first?"
"If it's 3 years, then how does the bank plan to promote it to the masses during these 3 years? How to establish a system that can replace brokers? Governor Qiu, can those commercial banks come up with a plan?"
Qiu Zhenwei shook his head. "I'm afraid brokers can't be completely eliminated in the future either... It's still that the people have no collateral. When the people get rich and have assets, many brokers can be eliminated. After 3 years, commercial banks will formulate relevant norms for the next 3 years. As far as the Central Bank is concerned, it naturally hopes there will be no brokers forever. The Central Bank will also be strict on the responsibility system and will not let those people have opportunities to take advantage."
"For example..." Wu Youping asked.
Qiu Zhenwei looked serious. "Take one-fourth of the salary and concentrate on clearing the debt. If it still cannot be solved after two months, there will be no salary, go solve the debt problem."
Wu Youping thought for a while and finally nodded. "Absolutely no breaking the law! If the law is broken, the judicial department will handle it naturally."
These tasks were hard to make people happy. After finishing the talk with Qiu Zhenwei, Wu Youping returned to his residence. With the alcohol going to his head, he fell asleep, but when he woke up, it was only past 4 AM. Drinking a glass of water to quench his thirst, Wu Youping couldn't sleep anymore, so he went to the office next door to continue reviewing documents. The more he reviewed, the more annoyed he became. Finally, when it was time for work, Wu Youping went straight to He Rui's office.
He Rui had just arrived. Wu Youping immediately said, "Chairman, I want to go down for inspection."
After speaking, Wu Youping waited for He Rui's answer. If He Rui refused, Wu Youping prepared to argue with He Rui. Then Wu Youping heard He Rui ask, "Youping, are you afraid of dizziness?"
"Afraid of dizziness? What do you mean?" Wu Youping was confused by this strange question.
He Rui explained, "Take a plane for inspection. As the saying goes, stand high and see far. The great rivers and mountains of the motherland can be seen more clearly from a plane. The most important thing is that the speed is also fast."
Wu Youping got He Rui's approval and felt that his troubles had found an outlet, so he laughed, "If the plane is not good, I'll hold Zhuang Jiaxiong accountable!"
He Rui was just joking, and now he was even more amused. It seems that selling out teammates starts with close acquaintances. However, the reliability of current aircraft was quite high; at least there was no worry about air disasters. If the weather was bad, even if Wu Youping wanted to fly, the Air Force wouldn't take off.
Watching Wu Youping happily write the inspection report, He Rui could understand how relaxed this comrade, who hadn't rested much in ten years, felt inside. He Rui suddenly remembered something and asked his secretary to call National Assembly Speaker Duan Qirui to ask what stage the "Holiday Law" had reached.
The secretary went to contact him, while He Rui picked up the latest international situation report. The current international situation was quite interesting. The biggest event was that the Dawes Plan was passed and began to be implemented.
Germany's hyperinflation starting in 1923 stemmed from Germany's inability to pay foreign war reparations and its desire to renege on domestic war debts, creating such a scene under various circumstances.
After Germany's domestic debt was wiped out through hyperinflation, the German Weimar government still had to continue paying war reparations abroad. So after a series of discussions, the Dawes Plan was finally passed on September 1, 1924.
The main contents of the Dawes Plan included: the Allied Powers supervising the reorganization of the Deutsche Bank, implementing currency reform, and the Allied Powers loaning 800 million gold marks (equivalent to 190 million US dollars) to stabilize its currency system.
Germany paid reparations in installments. Private banks injected capital into Germany to help Germany recover. J.P. Morgan & Co. of the United States agreed to provide Germany with the loans required by the Dawes Plan. Germany accepted the reparation plan on the condition that France and Belgium withdraw their troops from the Ruhr.
This plan attempted to guarantee Germany's payment of reparations by restoring the German economy, and it officially began operation. He Rui had always wanted to see if history would change because of the success of the Chinese revolution. Observing until now, several major factors for the outbreak of war in Europe had not changed because of the variable of China.
In He Rui's view, this Dawes Plan was continuing to bury mines, solving immediate problems through delay, but not solving the root of the problem at all.
If Germany wanted to develop, it had to constantly invest in the domestic economy, which was an endless long-distance run. The Allied Powers inserted a tube into Germany and constantly drew blood. Constantly drawing blood from a marathon runner, it was only a matter of time before this person fell; there was no possibility of holding on.
Europe had the Dawes Plan starting smoothly. The United States was currently in the explosive period of Coolidge Prosperity. The proportion of installment consumption in social consumption increased year by year, and the coverage of installment payments was also constantly expanding. The US stock market was booming, and stock leverage was also added.
Stock leverage means that if A wants to buy stocks, he doesn't have to pay the full amount. He only needs to pay a certain proportion of 'margin' to the financial company holding the stocks to obtain the stocks. If the stock rises, A makes money. If the stock falls, A's margin will be deducted by the financial company.
If A buys stocks with full payment, at most he holds the stocks without selling, or sells the stocks at a loss. However, after applying leverage, A is driven by debt. Even if all margins are deducted, as long as the stock is still falling, he has to continue to replenish the margin.
There were many reasons for the outbreak of the Great Depression in the United States, but such crazy increase in leverage was a tool to constantly expand the disaster. Leverage allowed the US stock market to increase three times in less than 10 years, allowing a large amount of funds to be invested in it, making rich people debt slaves under leverage.
When the stock market crashed, these people were dragged directly into the water, without even a chance to stop losses.
Having such a view did not mean that He Rui mocked the United States. The United States in the 1920s indeed had many commendable points, especially leading the world in new technology development and new production organization methods.
He Rui didn't care much about this because the Republic couldn't benefit from it. Even if there was a little profit, it wasn't enough to change anything. After all, any profit divided by 480 million would become negligible.
Just as he finished reading here, Wu Youping finished writing the report. Seeing He Rui reading the report with a face full of smiles, Wu Youping was quite curious, not knowing what good news it was.
He Rui put the report in front of Wu Youping. Wu Youping didn't understand what was worth being happy about in these reports he had read, so he asked frankly, "Chairman, is the international situation so optimistic?"
"Not optimistic. It's just watching the situation in various countries; the time for big trouble is getting closer and closer. It's really 'watching him build a tall building, watching him feast guests, watching his building collapse'."
Wu Youping couldn't understand, so he could only reply, "Then might as well look at Japan's report; Japan is truly having a hard time."
"Japan has reached the point where everyone knows it's finished; there's nothing to gloat about. In my opinion, there is a possibility for Japan at present: because the domestic pressure is too great, they might start a war with us regardless of everything to divert domestic contradictions."
Wu Youping was stunned. He Rui's way of thinking was indeed somewhat unconventional. But thinking carefully, there really was such a possibility. But Wu Youping didn't believe it. "Chairman, Japan wouldn't do such a thankless task, right?"
"Hmm... Roman historian Livy had a saying. To those to whom war is necessary, war is just; to those who have lost all hope, war is reasonable. The current Japan does not lack these two kinds of people."
Wu Youping was shocked by Livy's words. Because Wu Youping himself had almost despaired and had strongly looked forward to changing China's enslaved fate through war. Reciting this sentence silently in his heart a few times, Wu Youping asked, "Chairman, are you worried about Japan's situation?"
"To solve the Japanese problem, we must point out a path to the future for Japan. As long as we can make Britain sign a Sino-British Joint Communiqué on establishing diplomatic relations with us, we will have pointed out a bright path for Japan."
Hearing He Rui say this, Wu Youping didn't answer immediately but took the application and modified it. He Rui took the modified report and saw that Wu Youping's inspection destination had been adjusted, adding a part to Yunnan.
He Rui said immediately, "You can't take a plane anymore when you go to the mountainous areas; I'm afraid of accidents."
Seeing He Rui speaking sincerely, Wu Youping felt warm in his heart. "Please rest assured, Chairman, I definitely won't take a plane."
He Rui originally wanted to advise Wu Youping not to go to Yunnan, but he also wanted Wu Youping to relax, so he could only nod, "Be careful all the way."