文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Waning and Waxing (16)

Volume 4: Peace and Development · Chapter 56

Even facing a member of parliament, Ishiwara showed no politeness. His face was expressionless as he said coldly, "Please leave." However, Ishiwara had a baby face, so even when he was really angry, he looked like a sulking child.

Member of the House of Representatives Ishii Yoshiya bowed deeply, "Thank you, Your Excellency." Then he stood up and left.

Leaving Ishiwara's house, Ishii and the others walked for a while. The accompanying secretary saw that Ishii Yoshiya still looked moved and asked, "Sir, are you really going to modify the plan according to Your Excellency Ishiwara's words?"

Ishii didn't answer immediately. Ishiwara hadn't made any request for modification at all, but just answered some questions Ishii raised. Ishii asked Ishiwara to comment on the most desirable and undesirable parts of the entire plan. Ishiwara frankly told Ishii, "The cost of redemption and the repayment time are the most desirable and also the most undesirable."

This statement was very mysterious. Although Ishii felt something, he still couldn't fully grasp it, so he asked Ishiwara to clarify.

"From the perspective of proposing, the long-term repayment method shifts all risks to the people, making this method actually unfeasible. Opponents won't have special ill feelings towards you because risks are avoided. For you, this is very desirable."

"...Does Your Excellency think long-term repayment is undesirable?" Ishii already understood why Ishiwara thought this proposal was undesirable.

Ishiwara was also straightforward. "From the perspective of execution, China's land reform policy took effect immediately after implementation, solving the problem in the same year. It restored confidence and revitalized the economy. Even if your proposal is passed and implemented, it won't play such a role at all. This is also why I think it is the most undesirable. As for what you choose, please decide for yourself, Ishii-kun."

After saying this, Ishiwara said coldly, "Please leave."

Because Ishiwara's words completely pierced the somewhat ambiguous part in Ishii Yoshiya's heart, Ishii discovered that he indeed didn't want to trigger a fierce conflict. The benefits of adopting the Chinese land reform model were self-evident. The He Rui government did not hide the purpose and reason for formulating the land reform policy and gave a very clear explanation in government propaganda.

As a member of the Japanese House of Representatives, Ishii Yoshiya understood the land reform policy from the beginning and continued to pay attention to the execution of China's land reform. Those who could be elected as parliament members in Japan were not ordinary people. What truly shocked Ishii Yoshiya was that China easily annihilated a British fleet with a total tonnage of over 20,000 tons.

China actually winning the Sino-Japanese War had an impact on Ishii, but not a special shock. Japanese propaganda was not making up lies; China adopted sneak attacks, China had a large population, 'resisted the Japanese counterattack with casualties several times that of the Japanese army,' and held the border with a long defense line consuming huge manpower. Japan had to stop the war because of the Great Kanto Earthquake.

These reasons could well explain why Japan had been in a passive position.

The fact that China annihilated a British fleet completely shattered Ishii's view that Japan had a huge advantage over China. Japan's advantage over China was the Japanese Navy. China's population was 10 times that of Japan, and China's land was 20 times that of Japan (Japanese territory included Korea); these were all facts. Because of this, the invincible state of the Japanese Navy in the Far East appeared so outstanding. As long as this navy existed, Japan's advantage over China was immensely huge.

The Japanese Navy, crowning the Far East, could only cruise 200 kilometers away from the Chinese coast. As long as it entered the 200-kilometer range, the fleet might be completely destroyed, and Japan's advantage over China would vanish.

This shock to Ishii was immensely huge. If Japan could do nothing about China, China's rise would be inevitable. Japan's current advantage was completely built on the foundation of China's decline. If China rose again, Japan would fall into a complete defensive position.

In reality, Japan began to decline even before China rose. After accepting Professor Taira Toyomori's exposition on economic confidence, Ishii Yoshiya visited local areas for nearly two months. The Japan he saw made him feel incomparably desperate.

Except for a small number of factories moving out of Tokyo that were building factory buildings, the rest of the areas, whether industrial or agricultural, were lifeless.

After losing confidence, all industries in Japan were depressed. Rich people neither invested nor spent money, and the economy began to deteriorate comprehensively. Especially the lives of the people at the bottom suddenly fell back to decades ago. Every industry that had to continue operating was groaning miserably in involution, while industries that could temporarily stop operating closed down. Staying at home at least wouldn't face the crisis of bankruptcy; why bang one's head against the wall when one could avoid taking risks?

The He Rui government explicitly announced, 'China's rural economy has completely collapsed. The primary purpose of land reform is to restore the small peasant economy, and then quickly restore social order...'

Japan's rural economy had also completely collapsed. Farmers grew crops for a year, earning almost no money, or even owing money. To pay off debts, more women were sold into brothels.

Such a situation was miserable enough, yet such a miserable industry was also operating according to the economic laws described by 'He Studies.' Because the total consumption did not increase but decreased, while the supply with a low threshold actually increased, leading to involution among these poor women. To attract consumption, the price per service began to drop. In order to maintain total profit, brothel owners forced women to increase the number of services.

The situation of waning and waxing between China and Japan in a competitive situation was so distinct. Ishii discovered that as long as China had hope, it meant Japan's despair. China had confidence, while Japan lost confidence.

Currently, Japan could no longer win a war. Active attacks at sea were suicide, and active attacks on land were also suicide. Apart from digging out new hope within Japan, Japan had no other choice.

Walking all the way like this, Ishii gradually made up his mind. Since Japan had to change, he would be the first person to propose a plan.

Ishii's secretary looked at Ishii's expression and felt that Ishii had made a decision. He pulled Ishii, "Mr. Ishii, can I have a private word with you?"

Several people stopped. The secretary said worriedly, "Mr. Ishii, Your Excellency Ishiwara's judgment is reasonable. If you choose to propose, it will only trigger hostility."

Ishii had made up his mind at this time and said impassionedly, "If I don't propose it now, what about two years later? In Professor Taira Toyomori's deduction data, Japan's industrial output last year was only 5.5 billion, a decrease of 2.2 billion from 7.7 billion two years ago. Analyzing with the current economic trend of no confidence, Japan's domestic demand for industrial products is only 3.3 billion. Even if some people will oppose me, many people will support me. No, they don't support me; they support this 4.4 billion yen industrial output value."

The secretary didn't know what to say for a moment. The logic was correct. Japanese industry and commerce were already wailing and begging the government for support in the current situation. But the government's support had no direction. The comprehensive shrinkage of internal and external markets made any support meaningless. Even if they got money and resumed work, who would the produced goods be sold to?

Japan's great economic recession led to a lack of money in people's pockets, not a lack of goods on the market. Even if there were goods on the shelves, fewer and fewer people could afford them.

Ishii patted the secretary on the shoulder. "Don't worry. There are many people who oppose us, but there are also many people who support us!"

After the New Year holiday on January 1st passed, Ishiwara used his annual leave to stay in his hometown for a few more days. It was already January 7th when he bid farewell to his reluctant family and returned to Tokyo. The next day, the Japan Future Society held a meeting. Ishiwara accidentally learned that on the first day of the Diet session after the New Year, Ishii Yoshiya and Shibata Nagaeki, two members of parliament, jointly proposed the "Japan Land Restoration Plan".

Taking the excerpt of the Restoration Plan, Ishiwara browsed quickly and soon saw the part he cared about. This plan was for real. From the previous individual ownership of no more than 50 hectares of land with the excess purchased by the state, it changed to a family ownership of no more than 6 hectares of land with the excess purchased by the state.

The purchase price was no longer 80% of the market price, but the price of agricultural products in a bumper year was used as the purchase price. The state sold land to farmers at an average price of 120%. This 20% premium was various costs for the state to operate land purchases.

Moreover, the state established a Land Bank to provide loans to farmers who really had no money to buy land, with an annual interest rate of 4%. Other banks could also apply for this business, with an annual interest rate not exceeding 6%. Moreover, if farmers went bankrupt and sold land, they must sell it to the state and could not sell it privately.

Ishiwara originally thought that a member of the Japanese House of Representatives proposing such a proposal full of a sense of justice was to gain fame. That installment payment was the best proof. But Ishii and Shibata actually proposing this way meant they were really risking their lives!

Lieutenant Colonel Aizawa Saburo saw that Ishiwara had finished reading the report and immediately asked a question: "Ishiwara-kun, many comrades think this proposal has a chance of success. Although I think it's impossible to succeed, I also hope it can succeed. But in this way, the situation will change!"

Ishiwara looked at other main cadres; the comrades' views were similar, both expectant and uneasy. Ishiwara then answered, "It cannot succeed. Once land reform succeeds, it means Japan will immediately become a constitutional state. The upper class might accept a castrated version of the land reform policy that strengthens their rule to restore economic confidence. But the upper class will never accept constitutionalism. Once constitutionalism is accepted, Japan's national polity will change."

"Castrated version of the land reform policy?" Aizawa Saburo didn't quite understand.

Ishiwara Kanji knew that the comrades of the Future Society had various views from the beginning on He Rui completely confiscating land and then implementing distribution in the Northeast. Half of the opponents left the Future Society because of this divergence.

After He Rui won the war, those comrades who had left came back and brought a large group of new comrades. When He Rui implemented the land nationalization redemption policy in China, no longer confiscating but redeeming, more 'Future Society' sympathizers with softer stances also chose to join.

Even so, the bottom line of these people was the same: land nationalization and land redemption. Comrades really hadn't considered what a 'castrated version of the land reform policy' was.

Ishiwara didn't mention Ishii but listed data. Seeing that individuals could own up to 50 hectares of land at most, and hearing Ishiwara explain a little, everyone in the Future Society suddenly realized.

Most Japanese landowners did not own more than 50 hectares of land. If executed according to this standard, the land that could be sold to farmers would be negligible.

The comrades of the Future Society also understood the difference between their position and this group of reformists. Even those who agreed with redemption wanted to divide Japan's national land equally. This dividing line was so distinct at this time that there was no need to discuss it further.

Ishiwara concluded, "Therefore, this proposal cannot be passed no matter what!"