文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Spring of the North (19)

Volume 4: Peace and Development · Chapter 39

On the streets of Tokyo on January 4th, teams of workers were clearing the rubble. Tokyo, with a population of 5.6 million, was beginning to recover after experiencing the Great Kanto Earthquake. While destroyed parts of the city were being cleared patch by patch, reconstruction also began.

Lieutenant General Nagata Tetsuzan, Director of the National Mobilization Bureau, passed through the streets in his car. Nagata did not look out the window but sat with his eyes closed in deep thought. He was on his way to visit Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo.

Just on December 28th, the Takahashi Cabinet had dissolved again. A few years ago, Prime Minister Hara Takashi had been assassinated. That Takahashi Korekiyo, after completing the 'Armistice Agreement' with He Rui, actually stepped down alive and continued to serve as his Finance Minister, surprised many radicals.

Nagata was not surprised. This armistice was the intention of both the Ministry of Army and the Ministry of Navy. They just let Takahashi Korekiyo come out to clean up the mess and take the blame. Although the Ministry of Army and the Ministry of Navy made various hardline statements in the newspapers, they were merely hardline statements. Both sides kept a strict watch on internal radicals and absolutely would not allow them to actually cause trouble.

By this time, the radicals were actually behaving themselves. If they really wanted to display their Bushido spirit, they could simply launch a suicide attack against the Republic of China National Defense Force. Neither the Army nor the Navy proposed such a plan. Especially after the British fleet was sunk by Chinese suicide attack aircraft, the Navy also became thoroughly well-behaved.

The car arrived at the Ministry of Finance office building. Nagata got out and headed straight for Takahashi's office. Facing one of the few war heroes in Japan at the moment, all Ministry of Finance officials who recognized Nagata along the way respectfully made way.

Takahashi Korekiyo looked the same as before, only his eyelids were more swollen. Seeing Nagata arrive on time, Takahashi frankly stated the Ministry of Finance's requirements, "Given the current situation in Japan, we can only issue reconstruction notes directly. Nagata-kun, the Ministry of Finance cannot agree to the Mobilization Bureau's budget proposal."

In this war with China, the general mobilization order was issued by the Prime Minister and handed over to other ministers for execution. After the establishment of 'National General Mobilization,' the power to formulate general mobilization plans was transferred to the General Mobilization Bureau. Nagata becoming the director meant he could formulate general mobilization plans according to his own vision. In peacetime, the General Mobilization Bureau also had the power to intervene in daily economic operations. The former 'future leader of the Army' had become the core of the Army today.

Nagata was not displeased by the refusal. He took this opportunity to discuss Japan's current finances with Takahashi. Takahashi Korekiyo described the current situation to Nagata: Kanto was Japan's industrial heartland, and the stock market and banks providing financial services to the industrial area had also suffered heavy blows.

The blow was not simply the financial and human losses from destroyed offices and personnel deaths; a large number of transaction notes were destroyed, leading to unclear accounts. Re-auditing encountered various difficulties caused by the deaths of personnel.

Even if the accounts were clear and personnel survived, the Great Earthquake caused factory shutdowns and logistics chaos, forcing the interruption of a large number of financial transactions that provided monetary support for commodity trade. Banks had difficulty recovering funds, so they couldn't provide currency to companies in urgent need of capital. Under the chain reaction, the Japanese economy fell into a new round of chaos.

Listening to Takahashi Korekiyo's introduction, Nagata sincerely asked for advice, "Your Excellency, if the government does not provide liquidity support, how many Japanese companies will go bankrupt?"

Takahashi Korekiyo answered without hesitation, "30%."

Nagata was shocked. According to statistics so far, the Great Kanto Earthquake caused Japan to lose 5% of its wealth. If another 30% of companies collapsed, the entire Japanese economy would completely collapse. Nagata continued to ask, "Your Excellency, can the 'disaster relief notes' launched by the government allow companies to get out of the current predicament?"

Takahashi Korekiyo's evaluation of Nagata was okay. Normal Army 'idiots' hearing these complex and tedious economic problems would probably darken their faces and express their views in a tone of concern for the country and people: 'If the whole country is united as one and obeys the unified scheduling of the state, we can certainly tide over the difficulties.'

If things were really as simple as those Army 'idiots' who had never even opened a small shop thought, Takahashi Korekiyo would certainly choose to do so. However, the actual operation of the economy affects the whole body with one move; it seems uncomplicated, but it is extremely non-simple.

Since Nagata Tetsuzan didn't shout unrealistic slogans but asked for solutions, Takahashi Korekiyo was willing to offer some explanation. These 'disaster relief notes' were not simply compensation for Japanese industry and commerce, but the state providing 'liquidity' to these business owners at a time when the chaotic financial sector could no longer provide monetary services.

The disaster relief funds provided by the government to victims were only used to maintain basic survival. Although many people received relief funds, because the amount each person received was not large, the total amount did not feel as large as it was.

A single transaction for an enterprise could amount to tens or hundreds of thousands. The state absolutely could not provide so much cash to enterprises for emergency relief. As soon as cash was given, it would immediately be embezzled.

'Disaster relief notes' were just a kind of voucher that could only circulate within the industrial and commercial production system. The purpose was to let industry and commerce continue to operate first amidst the financial chaos. As long as industrial production recovered, workers could receive wages, and the government would not need to continue providing relief to workers on the verge of starvation. Economic and livelihood issues would be solved simultaneously.

To cope with the chaos caused by the Great Kanto Earthquake, the 'disaster relief notes' issued by the Japanese government were disaster area checks directly compensated by the government or rediscounted by the Bank of Japan for relief purposes. The Bank of Japan's loans for this amounted to 430 million yen.

Takahashi Korekiyo knew very well that this money temporarily allowed economic production to run again, but with the overall situation so bad, this money would inevitably lead to bigger problems in the future.

After explaining the current situation to Nagata Tetsuzan, Finance Minister Takahashi decided to see how reliable or unreliable Nagata really was. He said, "Nagata-kun, if we want to ease the current situation, one way is to restore Sino-Japanese trade as soon as possible."

Nagata's expression didn't change much; he just asked, "I wonder how great the impact of the interruption of Sino-Japanese trade is on Japan's finances?"

Takahashi Korekiyo gave a straightforward answer, "In 1919, Japan's investment in China was 1.439 billion yen, and the total trade volume with China reached 1.1424 billion yen. Afterwards, the investment and trade volume didn't change much. Now that a full-scale civil war has broken out in China, trade has almost been interrupted. As for the safety of investment in China, it is even harder to guarantee. If trade with China can be restored as soon as possible, the economic situation can improve a lot."

Nagata Tetsuzan naturally couldn't respond to this and could only remain silent. After finishing the talk with Takahashi Korekiyo, Nagata left the Ministry of Finance office building and unbuttoned his collar, wanting to catch his breath.

A total trade volume of 1.1 billion yen annually was very important for Japan. This was also one of the reasons why the Army always shouted 'Manchuria and Mongolia are the Empire's lifeline.' If China didn't trade with Japan, there were still Western countries to trade with. Even if China closed its doors and lived on its own, given China's territory and resources, it wouldn't be unable to survive. However, Japan might very well be unable to survive.

After the Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese Navy and Army no longer considered the option of conquering China by force in the short term. However, Nagata had failed to consider the issue of Sino-Japanese trade interruption caused by the Chinese civil war.

Previously, when the Northeast went to war with Japan, trade between the two sides was interrupted. Although it affected the Japanese economy, it wasn't that significant. Now that the whole of China was plunged into civil war, and He Rui's new government canceled concessions and took back customs, Sino-Japanese trade was directly interrupted.

Even without the Great Kanto Earthquake, the sudden loss of 1.1 billion yen in exports to China would have been a huge shock to Japan. After the Great Kanto Earthquake, this blow was even more fierce.

The more Nagata thought about it, the weaker he felt physically. Yet, he couldn't communicate this matter with others. As Lieutenant Colonel Nagata became Lieutenant General Nagata, a member of the core of power, he was already someone who had to solve problems for others. Even if he was at his wit's end, he had to pretend to be calm. Otherwise, Nagata would immediately lose popularity and eventually lose his status.

Suddenly, Nagata thought of Ishiwara. This guy was excluded from the decision-making core, but it was a blessing in disguise, as he didn't have to bear the huge pressure brought by decision-making. At this time, if there was anyone else who could discuss the current situation without being involved in interests, only Ishiwara remained.

Getting into the car, Nagata ordered the driver, "Go to the New Technology Training Bureau."

The office of the 'New Technology Training Bureau' had become what it should be: walls, teaching buildings, dormitories, playgrounds, training grounds. Although crude, everything that should be there was there. When Lieutenant General Nagata arrived, Lieutenant General Ishiwara Kanji was personally leading a group of young officers undergoing training to build some facilities. Under the command of chants, everyone hoisted a house beam onto a building with ropes. Everyone was bustling with activity, putting in full effort. It seemed they were completely unaffected by the critical economic situation.

Nagata waited until the beam was accurately in place before stepping forward to greet them. Seeing Lieutenant General Nagata Tetsuzan, a war hero whose reputation was faintly above Ishiwara Kanji's, approaching, the young officers hurriedly came forward to pay their respects. Nagata had things on his mind, so he just greeted the young officers with the serious expression a Lieutenant General should have, then said to Ishiwara, "Ishiwara-kun, let's talk."

Ishiwara took a towel handed by a young officer beside him to wipe his sweat, put on his military tunic and overcoat, and walked with Nagata along the track of the New Technology Training Bureau's playground.

In the cold wind, seeing Nagata's face was somewhat pale, Ishiwara couldn't help laughing, "Is Nagata-kun actually afraid? I wonder what big event it is?"

Nagata looked at Ishiwara, whose face was ruddy from labor, and said slowly, "When He-kun launched the unification war, he must have included the interruption of Sino-Japanese trade in his design, right?"

Ishiwara's expression became serious. "When He-kun thinks about national affairs, it's always politics first, then economics, and finally military. How could he not have considered such changes?"

"Ishiwara-kun said before that when He-kun's new government was established, Japan should immediately recognize the new government. I wonder if Ishiwara-kun thinks it is too late for the Japanese government to conduct diplomatic communication with He-kun now?"

Ishiwara Kanji answered immediately, "As time passes and circumstances change, He-kun has now stabilized the North and sunk the British fleet. These were expected for He-kun, but for He-kun's subordinates and the entire Chinese populace, they were earth-shattering. Recognizing He-kun's new government at this time... even if He-kun still wants to express goodwill to Japan and ease relations, with his prestige, he cannot go against public opinion. By the way, Nagata-kun has already seen the two latest major events in China, right?"

Nagata Tetsuzan nodded. Cao Kun's Zhili clique fought with the Republic of China National Defense Force and was beaten badly. Cao Kun had sent telegrams to He Rui one after another, expressing his hope for negotiations. The British side also jumped out to express their willingness to provide guarantees for peace talks.

The other event was that Commander-in-Chief of the Guangdong Army Chen Jiongming led the coalition forces to attack personnel from various countries fleeing from the Yangtze River Basin to Guangzhou. After fierce fighting, he captured them all. Chen Jiongming telegraphed the whole country, 'This battle is not to kill legal foreign citizens, but to arrest criminals from various concessions hiding among them, bring them to fair justice, and uphold the demands for justice of the Chinese people who have been harmed by these criminals.'

Upon learning this news, the British fleet in Hong Kong sent warships in an attempt to shell Guangzhou. As a result, seeing planes appearing in the sky, the fleet immediately turned around and left. They didn't even dare to stay in the Hong Kong military port and retreated directly to the safety of the sea.

Both events proved that He Rui's new government's unification war was rapidly entering a new stage. Once the coastal areas were all included in He Rui's sphere of influence, the Great Powers' idea of attacking China from the sea would no longer be possible. As for attacking China from land, even Britain and France were not so overconfident.

Just then, Ishiwara chuckled lightly, "One for one hundred. It seems Britain isn't willing either."

Nagata couldn't help but smile bitterly. The gold content of the yen was about the same as the Chinese silver yuan, with an exchange rate of roughly 1:1. The exchange rate between the yen and the pound was about 1:9. The sunken British battlecruiser 'Indefatigable' cost more than 1.7 million pounds, which was about 15.5 million yen. Adding two cruisers and four light cruisers, the total cost was about 20 million yen. The total number of sailors in the fleet was about 2,000. The total consumption of the fleet and personnel was over 30 million yen.

This was just a calculation based purely on money. As for the executed officers in the fleet, they were British naval personnel with extensive naval warfare experience. The loss of these human resources could not be measured by money alone.

China manufactured 24 suicide attack aircraft and trained air force pilots; the cost would not exceed 200,000 yen. 200,000 yen for 30 million yen; even the wealthy Britain couldn't sustain this. Not to mention Japan.

Ishiwara Kanji continued, "With the situation developing to this point, I'm actually a bit puzzled. Britain will definitely not let China's new government join world trade easily. They will inevitably impose a blockade on China, intercepting and capturing merchant ships heading to China. Even punishing merchants who trade with China. Even if the United States is not afraid of the British blockade, they wouldn't go so far as to break out into military and trade conflicts with Britain for China's sake. What He-kun is doing actually brings more loss than gain."

Nagata was somewhat puzzled. "More loss than gain might be an exaggeration. He-kun will definitely focus on internal affairs for the next few years. After a few years, Britain will still have to negotiate with China on trade."

Ishiwara shook his head. "No. He-kun is a person with far-reaching vision and knows deeply how trade promotes the economy. A blockade of several years will have a significant impact on China. It's not like He-kun didn't have gentler means to solve these problems."

Nagata wasn't here to discuss Chinese affairs with Ishiwara, let alone such profound issues. He simply stopped discussing this matter and turned the topic back to Sino-Japanese trade. "Does Ishiwara-kun think that Sino-Japanese trade will inevitably be affected by Britain?"

Ishiwara Kanji nodded. "If the country is willing to restore Sino-Japanese trade, we have to accept many of China's demands. Even if someone in the country works hard to push for it and prepares to sign a Sino-Japanese peace treaty, will Britain agree? Britain will certainly demand that Japan join in blockading China."

Nagata Tetsuzan knew Ishiwara Kanji's judgment was correct, and felt a burst of sorrow in his heart. Once Japan's continental policy went bankrupt, Japan was destined to be controlled by other countries. If Japan wanted to maintain a completely independent state, it wasn't impossible. Japan would just have to feed itself within its current territory. With Japan's small domestic market and domestic resources, Japan would be completely crushed by internal pressure without foreign countries attacking.

Even so, Nagata Tetsuzan tried to pull himself together. "In that case, when Britain demands Japan to join in blockading China, we must make demands of Britain."

Hearing this, Ishiwara felt disappointed in his heart. Even at this point, Japan's top power holders still couldn't see the situation clearly and insisted on continuing on the old path. Ishiwara believed that Nagata must understand that cooperation with China was the correct direction. But until they reached a dead end, Nagata didn't dare to question the old path. This was Nagata's sorrow, and also Japan's sorrow.