文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Chapter 228: Countdown to War: Year One (Part 8)

Volume 3: First War · Chapter 8

Zhang Xiluan met with He Rui in the morning and by noon had dispatched news of their talk to the capital. That evening, as soon as the message arrived in Beijing, someone secretly handed the contents of the telegram to the Japanese side. Zhang Xiluan's telegram was addressed to Xu Shichang, after all, it was Xu Shichang who had personally invited him. Zhang Xiluan never imagined that when Xu Shichang arrived for work the next morning and saw the telegram, he would immediately invite Duan Qirui over for a consultation.

By the time Duan Qirui arrived at the Presidential Palace to meet Xu Shichang, a meeting regarding these developments was also underway at the Japanese General Staff Office and the Ministry of War. The latest intelligence, including the contents of Zhang Xiluan's telegram, was placed before the assembled Japanese officers.

This meeting was attended not only by Chief of the General Staff Uehara Yūsaku but also by Army Minister Tanaka Giichi.

General Uehara Yūsaku went straight to the point, with no intention of polite pretense. "According to the General Staff's judgment, He-kun has already begun war preparations. Once preparations are complete, the war will begin."

Although Tanaka Giichi had held opposing views to General Uehara during the Siberian Intervention, they presented a united front when it came to dealing with He Rui. After Uehara finished speaking, Tanaka ordered Lieutenant Colonel Nagata Tetsuzan of the Military Affairs Bureau to present the Ministry of War's assessment to the assembled officers.

In the Japanese military, the highest rank for frontline operational staff was Colonel; generals did not personally involve themselves in such specific work. Nagata Tetsuzan was highly regarded within the army, which was why he was entrusted with such an important task.

Standing up, Nagata Tetsuzan began his briefing. "In 1916, the Northeast Army began its integration, and by the end of the year, they had largely eliminated the power of the old Northeast Army. According to their designations, they established four divisions. From early 1917 to 1922, the Northeast Army added at least six division designations annually. In 1920 alone, they added 10 division designations. Currently, the Northeast Army has a total of 48 division designations. A Northeast Army division has a complement of over 13,000 men, a scale equivalent to half of an Imperial Division."

The assembled officers were very clear on these figures; the divergence lay only in the analysis of the data. The Northeast Army's 48 divisions amounted to a troop strength equivalent to 24 Japanese divisions. Japan currently had 17 standing divisions, plus the Imperial Guard Division, for a total of 18 divisions.

In terms of army numbers, the Northeast Army held the advantage. However, Japan also possessed a navy, making the overall troop strength roughly equal between the two sides.

The assembled officers did not consider troop quality at all, because no one believed the Northeast Army's combat capability could exceed that of the Japanese Army. Everyone waited to hear Nagata Tetsuzan's continued analysis.

"He-kun possesses outstanding strategic patience. The Anhui Clique's Duan Qirui, with fewer than 200,000 troops, threatened to unify China by force. He-kun's 48 divisions, with an actual strength exceeding 300,000, have remained silent. At this stage, He Rui has begun to speak politically. It is projected that He-kun will initiate a total war to unify all of China by 1924 at the latest. If He-kun's objective is merely to unify the region north of the Yangtze, he could launch the war before June of next year."

No one raised any objections. Nagata Tetsuzan's ability was highly acclaimed, but that didn't mean he was the only wise man in Japan. Based on current data, any officer of above-average competence could reach a similar judgment.

Nagata Tetsuzan continued, "According to intelligence, since last year, the Northeast Army has dispatched surveying and reconnaissance teams to map and inspect various railways and roads leading south. They are specifically examining the reliability of the railways."

Hearing this, the assembled officers understood that He Rui was truly about to make his move. Such surveying and mapping was in itself an act of war. If not to ensure the speed of troop transport, there was absolutely no need to do this.

Tanaka Giichi motioned for Nagata Tetsuzan to sit, then spoke himself. "The Ministry of War now judges that He-kun is ready to implement his unification plan. The Empire absolutely does not wish to see China fall into the chaos of civil war again. According to contacts between our diplomatic personnel and the British, although Britain has certain expectations of He-kun, they align with the Empire on the position that China must maintain peace."

Hearing Army Minister Tanaka Giichi speak like this, Chief of Staff Uehara Yūsaku felt a slight disdain in his heart. The Ministry of War could utilize diplomatic channels by virtue of being part of the Cabinet. The General Staff, as an agency directly subordinate to the Emperor, naturally could not run off to contact foreign governments.

However, the General Staff had not remained idle; based on strategic analysis, they had reached a similar conclusion. China had three major warlord factions: the Anhui Clique, the Zhili Clique, and the Fengtian Clique. The Zhili Clique had the support of Britain and France; the Anhui Clique controlled the central government and had maintained close ties with Japan since Yuan Shikai's time.

Although He Rui's Fengtian Clique had good trade relations with Britain, France, and Japan, He Rui had used his exceptional political ability to vigorously develop Northeast industry. He had also stabilized Soviet Russia by leveraging its currently perilous external environment. He now occupied a very transcendent position.

The Japanese General Staff believed that He Rui would be very clear that militarily unifying China would break this situation. The current point of divergence was whether He Rui prepared to unify China quickly, or if he prepared to eliminate the warlords one by one, using a dual approach of politics and military force to complete China's unification.

Army Minister Tanaka Giichi continued, "The Ministry of War judges that He-kun will adopt military means as the primary method, and political means as auxiliary, to unify China as quickly as possible."

General Uehara Yūsaku couldn't help but frown slightly. Compared to the minor unpleasantness with Tanaka Giichi, the current situation was far more significant. Tanaka's view conformed to military theory, but before the General Staff could accept such a view, they needed considerable certainty.

At this moment, Major General Mikuchi of the General Staff asked, "Excellency Tanaka, He-kun is skilled in diplomacy. Is it possible he will adopt a strategy of sufficient diplomacy to defeat the warlords one by one, thereby also ascertaining the reactions of various nations?"

Tanaka Giichi answered decisively, "Impossible. Precisely because He-kun is proficient in diplomacy, he can better judge that such a method would only trigger strong opposition from foreign powers. Even if done in stages, He-kun would first take the unification of the region north of the Yangtze as his strategic goal."

This judgment aligned with the perceptions of the assembled officers, and the meeting quickly turned towards how Japan should respond to this situation. Only Nagata Tetsuzan felt in his heart that this judgment was not yet optimal.

Even without having dealt much with He Rui, just reading He Rui's writings and articles allowed one to judge that this man possessed brilliant political insight. Up to now, everything He Rui had done conformed to political and military common sense; this was the consensus within the Japanese military, and Nagata Tetsuzan viewed it the same way.

What differed from the others was that various materials and intelligence gave him a subtle sense of incongruity. With He Rui's reputation and ability, he should be executing these plans more efficiently, rather than being seen through so clearly and thoroughly by the Great Powers.

Nagata Tetsuzan had discussed this 'sense of incongruity' with other officers. Whether generals or field grade officers, they all acknowledged this feeling, but their explanation was, 'If He-kun cannot make the various nations understand his strategy, misjudgments will arise. At that time, He-kun would suffer enormous losses.'

The officers' judgment, in Nagata Tetsuzan's view, was both right and wrong. Obtaining the understanding of various nations was correct, but after factoring in this condition, He Rui's actions seemed even less efficient to Nagata.

Having experienced this, Nagata Tetsuzan felt very lonely within the military establishment. If it were just him holding such a view on the same matter, the loneliness was even worse than living in seclusion in the mountains. If one lived in seclusion, one could imagine there were many others in the world with the same views. Being among the crowd, one discovered that the vast majority of people around were not fellow travelers at all, and one's true kindred spirits were slow to appear. Every exchange with others brought only disappointment and further disappointment.

Just as Nagata Tetsuzan was lost in his own thoughts, the discussion had developed as he expected, moving towards supporting Duan Qirui.

"...The Anhui Clique has a troop strength of around 200,000, but most equipment is obsolete and training levels are low. Duan Qirui has also discovered this problem and is recruiting sons of good families from Zhili and surrounding areas to join the army, following the Beiyang training tradition. We should cooperate with Duan Qirui in this regard. Even if Duan Qirui's strength cannot rival the Northeast Army in the short term, we must at least enable him to stall He Rui. Once war breaks out, we can coordinate with Britain..."

"...But the American side will support the Northeast Government, right?" someone raised this view.

The group of officers was momentarily silent. The United States was currently the world's number one industrial power. According to He Rui's geopolitics, the United States was situated on an isolated island outside the World Island; although it possessed powerful strength, it still had an island-nation mentality.

As Japanese, the military officers could well understand this judgment. The United States could fully guarantee its own security, so naturally, it would look forward to breaking the current world order. Of course, the United States itself lacked the ability to invade the World Island, nor was it appropriate to do so. With Britain's policy of continental balance of power, the United States could stir up the situation on the World Island at this time. Wherever the situation was critical, the United States could, through aid and support, cause the unbalanced and critical situation to develop towards a rapid intensification of contradictions and a swift collapse of the balance.

The United States likely did not wish to see He Rui unify China, but they would certainly be happy to see He Rui deal a heavy blow to the world order currently dominated by Britain and France during the process of unification. This was also a variable in the current strategic situation.

Duan Qirui did not know that he needed to do nothing, yet a massive interest was approaching him. In Xu Shichang's Presidential Palace, Duan Qirui answered decisively, "Since He Rui wants to meet at Shanhai Pass, I will send a telegram to He Rui right now."

Xu Shichang nodded. Zhang Xiluan's telegram did not mention He Rui's attacks on the Republic's Ministry of Foreign Affairs; even if it had, Xu Shichang wouldn't have taken it seriously. At this moment, all attacks on the Beiyang central government were merely He Rui's bargaining chips. Meeting Duan Qirui at Shanhai Pass would undoubtedly allow them to speak openly. Whatever He Rui actually wanted could be made clear and explained to Duan Qirui. To be able to negotiate such a result, Xu Shichang felt that his old brother Zhang Xiluan was truly loyal enough; he had done his best.

Upon receiving the telegram, He Rui began arranging his itinerary. Shanhai Pass, as a defensive direction in this campaign, was a very important secondary theater. If the Japanese army were pressed hard, it was very possible they would disregard everything and land at Tanggu, launching an attack on the Northeast from Shanhai Pass. Although the probability was not high, it could not be ignored.

Under normal circumstances, Duan Qirui would not send troops to participate in a military operation besieging He Rui, but preparations had to be made for such an eventuality. This was the seriousness of military affairs.

Traveling from Shenyang all the way to Shanhai Pass required passing through several regions vital to the Northeast. He Rui could not make this trip solely for Duan Qirui.

Arrangements made, He Rui embarked on the journey. The most critical area along the route was Jinzhou. This city controlled the vital passage into the pass and was the gateway and screen for Shenyang's southwest direction. If the Japanese army truly dared to land a large army group at Tanggu, a war zone would have to be constructed with Jinzhou as the core.

Arriving in Jinzhou, he saw many recruitment stations set up on the streets. There were even more recruitment stations in areas where Jinzhou's factories and enterprises were clustered. Young men came and went in groups, led to sign up by recruitment staff responsible for various units.

Arriving at the Jinzhou Command, Xie Mingxian, Commissar of the 7th Army Group, came out to welcome him. A division of the Northeast Army had only about 13,000 men, which was a relatively small division-level combat unit by world standards. Therefore, the Northeast Army's organization included the 'Corps' unit. One Corps commanded three divisions.

However, a 'Group Army' was a temporary combat unit that only appeared during wartime. For instance, now, Jinzhou and Shanhai Pass belonged to one theater of operations. A corps with a strength of 40,000 men would be deployed from Shanhai Pass to Tanggu. Jinzhou would also have a corps.

Between two corps commanders, there could not be an issue of who commanded whom, so a Group Army had to be established to unify command of the two corps in the unified theater of operations.

Xie Mingxian was the Group Army Commissar, the top political leader. Group Army Commander Xiao Bangguo was the top operational leader. When Xie Mingxian accompanied He Rui into the headquarters, they saw Xiao Bangguo confirming tasks.

Seeing He Rui enter, Xiao Bangguo and the reporting officers hurriedly stood up and saluted. He Rui returned the salute and said, "You continue first."

Xiao Bangguo immediately asked, "When will the airfield acceptance report be submitted?"

The reporting Lieutenant Colonel immediately answered, "Tomorrow at the latest. Reconnaissance planes have already started stationing at the airfield and have begun test flights."

Only after this matter was handled did He Rui speak with Xiao Bangguo. As a Group Army Commander, Xiao Bangguo had just reached the age of 32—truly astoundingly young. A 32-year-old Group Army Commander was rare even in times of war. What was less rare was that Xiao Bangguo's rank was only Major General.

Xiao Bangguo came up and asked straightforwardly, "Chairman, are there more backup plans for the operational plan?"

He Rui couldn't help but smile. "Are the current backup plans not enough?"

"The operational plans for the current stage are sufficient. However, the officers assigned to the 7th Army Group generally only master regiment-level confrontation drills. For division-level training, everyone can only rely on their own imagination."

There was much helplessness in Xiao Bangguo's words, but He Rui did not generate any negative emotion because of it. If Xiao Bangguo lacked military talent, he certainly wouldn't have been appointed as Group Army Commander. He now saw where the problem lay. As an extremely young army, the Northeast Army lacked the sediment of war experience. 99.9% of the officers and men had never met an enemy face-to-face, let alone fired a shot at one. No matter how much they trained, it was only sparring with their own people.

Regiment-level confrontations were not large in scale; their actions could be fully calculated. One could truly engage in 'paper talk' and complete it through training.

But at the division level of combat units, with a scale of over ten thousand men, the battlefield one was responsible for was completely different from regiment-level influence. Once war started, this combat unit would have to shoulder heavy tasks. Division commanders had to consider not just a trench or a few hilltops, but the overall war situation across a vast area.

Commanders who had not experienced these things were destined to only be able to talk on paper. Such heavy responsibility pressed upon a group of young soldiers who had been in the service for only five or six years.

Seeing Xiao Bangguo under such pressure, He Rui ordered, "Call the comrades from the Group Army Staff. Let's run a simulation."

Xiao Bangguo was overjoyed and immediately gathered the staff personnel. He Rui, acting as the Japanese side, began directing the Tanggu landing.

The Group Army Staff immediately discovered the landing 'Japanese forces' through the condition of 'all-day aerial reconnaissance'. And based on aerial photography and pilot observation, they determined the landing numbers.

Since the Japanese dispatched two divisions and landed successfully, there was a small debate within the Group Army Staff about whether to strike this Japanese force.

Of course, small-scale strikes had already begun from the moment the Japanese appeared. Division-level 100mm mortars and regiment-level 80mm mortars continuously bombarded Japanese troop concentration points.

As news of a new Japanese division landing arrived, the troops began dismantling railways, destroying roads, and setting up positions, effectively inflicting casualties on the Japanese while retreating in echelons when the Japanese launched fierce attacks.

During this period, because one Japanese detachment was found to be advancing too rashly, the 23rd Corps guarding Shanhai Pass used the terrain to launch a counterattack, dealing a heavy blow to the protruding Japanese brigade and rendering it completely combat-ineffective. And two hours before other Japanese forces could arrive, they chose to retreat.

Through such fighting, the troops pinned down three Japanese divisions, achieving a standoff with the Japanese centered on Shanhai Pass. Simulating up to this point, He Rui was very satisfied with the troops' preparatory work.

Although situations change in war, the Japanese Army was not the world's strongest army; in terms of equipment, they were inferior to the Northeast Army. In tactical understanding and war thinking, they were far inferior to the Northeast Army, which was armed with modern military concepts.

That the Northeast Army Group Staff could achieve this level meant they were absolutely a top-ten army in the world. If one insisted on saying they squeezed into the top five, it wasn't impossible.

The expressions of the Group Army Staff personnel were no longer as tense as before; they had all relaxed considerably. He Rui looked at the Group Army Commissar and smiled. "Comrade Xie Mingxian, you, the Commissar, haven't been able to eliminate the comrades' nervousness. The Japanese army is not that terrible."

Xie Mingxian could only nod. "Chairman, perhaps we emphasized too much in the early stages that we must not underestimate the enemy, which struck a blow to the comrades' confidence."

He Rui understood that political work was not easy, so he turned to the comrades. "Comrades, do you have the confidence to win this battle for the motherland?"

Everyone's eyes lit up, and they responded in unison, "We have confidence!"

"The most fearful thing in fighting a war is not knowing what you are fighting for. Since you know what you are fighting for, the next step is to cast aside selfishness, cast aside the desire for fame and profit. Focus on the things that need to be done. I see that comrades have prepared very sufficiently. I can tell you clearly, although we do not have a powerful navy, this war is a land war, not a naval war. Everyone is already very clear in the simulation on how to avoid letting the Japanese army utilize their naval strength, so we won't suffer silent losses. As for land warfare, we have airplanes, we have cannons, and our weapons and equipment are sufficient. We fight for the motherland, for our hometowns, for our families to live good lives. This will gain the support of the people. As long as we fight according to the laws of war, we will not fail. Setbacks suffered on the battlefield will absolutely not affect our overall situation."

The comrades revealed looks of joy, then they heard He Rui continue, "Unless..."

At this, everyone became tense again, staring intently at He Rui.

"Unless there are commanders who only think about winning, only think about winning for themselves alone, acting recklessly without regard for consequences. Or those who only think about how to preserve their forces when encountering setbacks or defeat, so as to reduce the punishment they might receive. So they disobey orders and cower in retreat before the enemy. This is the reason that will lead to our failure. I suggest that in the coming time, everyone can conduct simulations targeting our tactical arrangements and targeting such possibilities."

It was evident that the comrades in the staff department felt this was a good method. Group Army Commissar Xie Mingxian and Commander Xiao Bangguo felt a sense of relief, as if a heavy burden had been lifted.

He Rui was also very satisfied. With pressure mounting from all sides, adding more pressure would only push everyone into a worse state. Decompression was the priority of the moment. In other words, He Rui had to tell everyone that failure would not only happen but would be accepted.

Likewise, what could not be accepted was using failure as an excuse to seek personal gain. Such people were a scourge in the army and had to be eliminated immediately.

Having completed the inspection work and soothed the comrades' moods, He Rui continued his advance toward Shanhai Pass.

When the train stopped at Shanhai Pass Station, Duan Qirui's troops were already welcoming him at the platform. The Lieutenant Colonel in the lead saw He Rui and immediately stood at attention and saluted. "Reporting to General Zhen'an, Director-General Duan is already waiting for the General atop the Shanhai Pass city wall."

He Rui took only his guard detail and headed straight for Shanhai Pass. Climbing the steps to the top of the wall, he saw Duan Qirui indeed standing there, gazing out at the seascape. As He Rui approached, Duan Qirui's guard stepped forward to report. Duan Qirui then turned around. "Brother He Rui, you've had a hard journey. How about taking a walk with me on the wall?"