文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Chapter 8 He Rui's Graduation (Part 8)

Volume 1: Origin Story · Chapter 8

There were few people on the campus during the holiday, most of whom were heading towards the library. The neat campus was quiet and peaceful, as if asleep. It wasn't until He Rui pushed open the front door of the classroom that he saw it was already full of people. The atmosphere immediately returned to the appearance of a normal class.

The front rows of the classroom were packed with students. In the last two rows were Professor Taira Toyomori, a few young officials from the Ministry of Finance, and reporters. There were also a few people he didn't recognize, who should be of similar status.

Because it was the last lesson, there wasn't much teaching content. After finishing the lecture, He Rui patted the chalk dust off his hands and said to everyone, "If you have any questions, you can ask them now."

A young student immediately asked, "Excuse me, can we, the Allied Powers, win?"

The Beiyang Government chose neutrality at this time and did not join the Allied Powers. Japan was a member of the Allied Powers. Looking at the expectant eyes of the students, He Rui answered calmly, "The industrial scale, industrial population, and industrial strength of the Allied Powers are all far above the Central Powers. Modern warfare competes on these things. No matter how brave and skillful the German army is in battle, it cannot reverse the realistic material conditions. In terms of will to war, France will never surrender. On the other hand, Germany must make France yield to be able to account to the participating nationals. If France does not surrender, the Allied Powers will fight to the end. In this war of attrition lasting several years, the Allied Powers will inevitably win."

The reporters scribbled down He Rui's speech, and another student asked, "Excuse me, when will the World War end?"

"Probably between mid-1917 and early 1919."

"Excuse me, after the Allied Powers win, how will the world situation change?"

"After the war ends, Britain and France will formulate a world order favorable to them. To limit Germany's revenge, the countries and territories of Europe should be divided. Germany will cede land and limit armaments. The Austro-Hungarian Empire will probably be split..."

"Excuse me, how will the future of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance evolve?"

"After the war ends, the victorious Britain's main opponent will become the United States. After all, the war broke out in Europe. The United States is outside the battlefield, and the profits earned from the war will be dozens of times that of Japan. To cope with the challenge of the United States, Britain will gather all interests in its hands as much as possible. Future Anglo-Japanese relations will subordinate to such strategic needs of Britain..."

The students eagerly asked about international events, and He Rui answered them one by one with ease.

After answering more than a dozen questions, He Rui took out his pocket watch and looked at it, saying, "I will answer one more question next. Please think carefully, everyone."

Hearing this request, the students began to ponder. The young official from the Ministry of Finance in the back had been silent all along, but at this moment he couldn't help but speak. "Excuse me, if the war ends in 1918, what will happen to the Japanese economy?"

He Rui thought this was a good question and replied, "Regarding this matter, Professor Taira Toyomori and I have already written a report to the Ministry of Finance. We suggested that the Ministry of Finance start adjusting production from the end of 1917, shifting the industrial structure from war material export to civilian production fields. Although after the World War ends, Japan will inevitably turn from a debtor nation to a creditor nation..."

A sigh bordering on a cheer erupted in the classroom. In the Russo-Japanese War of 1904, Japan borrowed a large amount of foreign debt. After Russia's defeat, it did not cede land or pay indemnities. Japan had been working hard to repay the debt. Being able to pay off all foreign debts was Japan's expectation for many years.

The judgment of leaping from a debtor nation to a creditor nation excited everyone. The students who heard this were full of joy, and the young officials of the Ministry of Finance also had their eyes shining. Even Professor Taira Toyomori, who was usually very steady, couldn't help but push his black-rimmed glasses.

Only the man in the back row whom He Rui had never seen before looked calm and thoughtful. Seeing He Rui notice him, the man's expression remained calm, looking as if he didn't see anything.

He Rui paused, waiting for the enthusiastic atmosphere to subside slightly before continuing his prediction. "Even if such huge benefits are gained in the war, as long as Japan's industrial structure maintains the wartime mode, it will fall into a predicament due to the sudden decrease in orders. It may even fall into an economic crisis. This is my prediction for the Japanese economy."

The enthusiasm in the classroom seemed to have been poured with a basin of cold water. Many young students who were smiling a moment ago lost their smiles and looked surprised.

After answering this question, He Rui said, "Today's Q&A ends here."

A sigh came from among the students, obviously wishing for more.

He Rui continued, "Gentlemen, geopolitics is a brand-new discipline, but it is not a miraculous method of turning stone into gold. I look forward to everyone facing this discipline with an attitude of seeking truth from facts, giving it a chance to become a tool for analyzing the world in your hands. Gentlemen, goodbye."

The students stood up collectively and applauded He Rui.

He Rui walked out of the classroom. Professor Taira Toyomori followed him out. "He-kun, I'll see you to the pier."

"Many thanks."

Just as the two walked to the entrance of the teaching building, the young officials from the Ministry of Finance caught up from behind. "Professor Taira, Mr. He, please stay."

The young officials who caught up apologized first, and the official in charge of the currency department then asked, "Excuse me, how will the Japanese exchange rate change after the war?"

He Rui stated the result directly. "The Yen will appreciate."

Reporters also chased out but were stopped by an official from the Ministry of Finance, preventing them from disturbing.

"If the Yen appreciates, how should export policy be adjusted?"

"After the war ends, no matter how Japan adjusts, exports will decrease."

"He-kun, there must always be a relatively better way to deal with it," the young officials implored.

"The way must start with controlling exports. The Ministry of Finance provides intelligence on export markets, and banks adopt more detailed loan guidance for export enterprises. Perhaps it can reduce the impact received."

"Guiding exports?"

"Exports to Europe will inevitably shrink, so it is even more necessary to figure out which categories can no longer be done. Small enterprises have no way of knowing export risks; all they know is selling goods to export enterprises and foreign merchants. If the Ministry of Finance and banks cannot cooperate to kill risks at the source, what kind of result do you think will happen?"

The young officials of the Ministry of Finance looked solemn. Because of a lack of understanding of overseas market changes, large numbers of exporters and production enterprises in a certain category had gone bankrupt many times. Not only did enterprises collapse and business owners commit suicide, but banks also took on a pile of bad debts. No party had a good result.

The Ministry of Finance had also thought of ways to deal with this, but the results were minimal.

At this time, a person at the edge of the circle stepped forward amidst everyone's silence. This person was the one in the classroom whose face had remained unchanged throughout. He walked opposite He Rui and took out a business card.

"I am Mitsui Yasuki. I have long heard of He-kun's great name and listened to He-kun's brilliant views. I am truly impressed."